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Sheetal K. Chand and Mr. Albert Jaeger

Abstract

This paper discusses a study analyzing aging populations and public pension schemes. An aging society is characterized by a growing proportion of the retired to the active working population. The study examines the pension-related aging problem primarily from a fiscal perspective. It analyzes how prospective demographic developments that affect the proportion of the pensionable elderly affect pension outlays. It confirms that very serious fiscal stresses are in prospect for most industrial economies. Addressing such problems satisfactorily will require major actions early, given the long lead times involved in reforming a pension fund's financial position.

Sheetal K. Chand and Mr. Albert Jaeger

Abstract

This paper discusses a study analyzing aging populations and public pension schemes. An aging society is characterized by a growing proportion of the retired to the active working population. The study examines the pension-related aging problem primarily from a fiscal perspective. It analyzes how prospective demographic developments that affect the proportion of the pensionable elderly affect pension outlays. It confirms that very serious fiscal stresses are in prospect for most industrial economies. Addressing such problems satisfactorily will require major actions early, given the long lead times involved in reforming a pension fund's financial position.

Sheetal K. Chand and Mr. Albert Jaeger

Abstract

An aging society is characterized by a growing proportion of the retired to the active working population. Societies age either when fertility rates decline so that fewer children are born, or when longevity increases, or both. Aging affects virtually all societies today, but more so the industrial countries, which have generally experienced it over a longer period and for which further pronounced aging is projected over the next four decades, at the end of which a peak in the proportion of the elderly is likely to be attained. Concerns about the challenges posed by aging populations have moved to the forefront of the public policy debate in many countries. This paper attempts to respond to some of these concerns, focusing in particular on the fiscal sustainability of public pension schemes in industrial countries.

Sheetal K. Chand and Mr. Albert Jaeger

Abstract

An aging society is characterized by a growing proportion of the retired to the active working population. Societies age either when fertility rates decline so that fewer children are born, or when longevity increases, or both. Aging affects virtually all societies today, but more so the industrial countries, which have generally experienced it over a longer period and for which further pronounced aging is projected over the next four decades, at the end of which a peak in the proportion of the elderly is likely to be attained. Concerns about the challenges posed by aging populations have moved to the forefront of the public policy debate in many countries. This paper attempts to respond to some of these concerns, focusing in particular on the fiscal sustainability of public pension schemes in industrial countries.

Sheetal K. Chand and Mr. Albert Jaeger

Abstract

Projections of demographic trends reflect assumptions about future variations in fertility, life expectancy, and immigration flows.2 Present rates of fertility (the number of children born to an average woman during her lifetime) differ considerably across the selected industrial countries, ranging from historically low values of 1.3 (Germany, Italy) to highs of 2.1 (United States, Sweden). Over the next four decades, the demographic scenarios assume, perhaps optimistically, that the fertility rate in all countries will converge to the level needed to maintain a stable population, that is, about 2.1. However, trends in fertility rates are notoriously difficult to predict.3 Although deviations from the fertility assumptions underlying the projections will not affect the projected number of elderly persons, they could nevertheless have sizable effects on the projected number of persons of young and working age. Life expectancy at birth of both sexes is projected to increase by some five years until 2050, with most of the added longevity occurring before 2020. In light of present political realities, net immigration flows in most of the industrial countries are assumed to taper off quickly from observed levels during the early 1990s, falling to zero in most countries after 2005. Only Canada and the United States are assumed to have positive (but declining) net immigration beyond 2005.

Sheetal K. Chand and Mr. Albert Jaeger

Abstract

Projections of demographic trends reflect assumptions about future variations in fertility, life expectancy, and immigration flows.2 Present rates of fertility (the number of children born to an average woman during her lifetime) differ considerably across the selected industrial countries, ranging from historically low values of 1.3 (Germany, Italy) to highs of 2.1 (United States, Sweden). Over the next four decades, the demographic scenarios assume, perhaps optimistically, that the fertility rate in all countries will converge to the level needed to maintain a stable population, that is, about 2.1. However, trends in fertility rates are notoriously difficult to predict.3 Although deviations from the fertility assumptions underlying the projections will not affect the projected number of elderly persons, they could nevertheless have sizable effects on the projected number of persons of young and working age. Life expectancy at birth of both sexes is projected to increase by some five years until 2050, with most of the added longevity occurring before 2020. In light of present political realities, net immigration flows in most of the industrial countries are assumed to taper off quickly from observed levels during the early 1990s, falling to zero in most countries after 2005. Only Canada and the United States are assumed to have positive (but declining) net immigration beyond 2005.

Sheetal K. Chand and Mr. Albert Jaeger

Abstract

This section outlines the analytical and empirical approach adopted for assessing the long-run fiscal impact of a public pension system.15 The section also presents projections of the fiscal consequences of preserving current public pension arrangements.

Sheetal K. Chand and Mr. Albert Jaeger

Abstract

This section outlines the analytical and empirical approach adopted for assessing the long-run fiscal impact of a public pension system.15 The section also presents projections of the fiscal consequences of preserving current public pension arrangements.

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper explores the economic consequences of aging and its impact on long-term fiscal sustainability for Cyprus. The study analyzes the potential macroeconomic impact of different approaches to deal with the fiscal costs of aging. It goes beyond a simple quantification of the fiscal impact by explicitly examining the trade-offs of alternative policies within the context of a general equilibrium overlapping generation framework. It is concluded that addressing the fiscal consequences of aging will require increasing the retirement age to 65 years, followed by further increases to keep up with demographic trends.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the medium-term budgetary framework (MTBF) for Austria. Austria is part of a trend among many countries to consider some form of MTBF. This paper describes the proposed framework in Austria and assesses it in light of the experience of other countries. The general conclusion is that the track records are mixed, but that, on balance, the experiences with MTBFs have been favorable. The paper also examines the long-term fiscal challenges arising from demographic change.