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International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues paper on the Arab Republic of Egypt examines the dynamic relationship between the nominal exchange rate and prices during Egypt’s exit from a managed exchange rate regime. The exit from the peg went through several phases, including a series of step devaluations between 2000 and 2002, a first attempt at a float in January 2003, and the successful transition to a unified, flexible exchange rate system in late-2004. From 2000 to 2004, the Egyptian pound experienced a cumulative depreciation of 68 percent against the U.S. dollar.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
'Wising Up to the Costs of Aging' looks at how falling fertility and rising life expectancy have combined to threaten the ability of many countries to provide a decent standard of living for the old without imposing a crushing burden on the young. In our lead article, Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason say that while population aging in rich industrial countries as well as in some middle- and lower-income countries will challenge public and private budgets in many ways, a combination of reduced consumption, postponed retirement, increased asset holdings, and greater investment in human capital should make it possible to meet this challenge without catastrophic consequences. Neil Howe and Richard Jackson publish a fascinating ranking of which countries are best and worst prepared to meet the needs of the growing wave of retirees. We also have articles on a broad range of current topics, including Middle East unemployment, the economic repercussions of the earthquake and devastating tsunami in Japan, and banking in offshore financial centers such as the Cayman Islands. Carmen Reinhart and Jacob Kirkegaard look at how governments are finding ways to manipulate markets to hold down the cost of financing huge public debts, and, in Straight Talk, the IMF’s Min Zhu talks about the long-term challenges now facing emerging markets. Prakash Loungani speaks to Nobel Prize winner George Akerlof, and we discuss with three other laureates-Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz, and Robert Solow-what the global economic crisis has taught us. Back to Basics explains economic models, and Picture This highlights the great variations in the cost of sending money back home.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
'Wising Up to the Costs of Aging' looks at how falling fertility and rising life expectancy have combined to threaten the ability of many countries to provide a decent standard of living for the old without imposing a crushing burden on the young. In our lead article, Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason say that while population aging in rich industrial countries as well as in some middle- and lower-income countries will challenge public and private budgets in many ways, a combination of reduced consumption, postponed retirement, increased asset holdings, and greater investment in human capital should make it possible to meet this challenge without catastrophic consequences. Neil Howe and Richard Jackson publish a fascinating ranking of which countries are best and worst prepared to meet the needs of the growing wave of retirees. We also have articles on a broad range of current topics, including Middle East unemployment, the economic repercussions of the earthquake and devastating tsunami in Japan, and banking in offshore financial centers such as the Cayman Islands. Carmen Reinhart and Jacob Kirkegaard look at how governments are finding ways to manipulate markets to hold down the cost of financing huge public debts, and, in Straight Talk, the IMF’s Min Zhu talks about the long-term challenges now facing emerging markets. Prakash Loungani speaks to Nobel Prize winner George Akerlof, and we discuss with three other laureates-Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz, and Robert Solow-what the global economic crisis has taught us. Back to Basics explains economic models, and Picture This highlights the great variations in the cost of sending money back home.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
'Wising Up to the Costs of Aging' looks at how falling fertility and rising life expectancy have combined to threaten the ability of many countries to provide a decent standard of living for the old without imposing a crushing burden on the young. In our lead article, Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason say that while population aging in rich industrial countries as well as in some middle- and lower-income countries will challenge public and private budgets in many ways, a combination of reduced consumption, postponed retirement, increased asset holdings, and greater investment in human capital should make it possible to meet this challenge without catastrophic consequences. Neil Howe and Richard Jackson publish a fascinating ranking of which countries are best and worst prepared to meet the needs of the growing wave of retirees. We also have articles on a broad range of current topics, including Middle East unemployment, the economic repercussions of the earthquake and devastating tsunami in Japan, and banking in offshore financial centers such as the Cayman Islands. Carmen Reinhart and Jacob Kirkegaard look at how governments are finding ways to manipulate markets to hold down the cost of financing huge public debts, and, in Straight Talk, the IMF’s Min Zhu talks about the long-term challenges now facing emerging markets. Prakash Loungani speaks to Nobel Prize winner George Akerlof, and we discuss with three other laureates-Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz, and Robert Solow-what the global economic crisis has taught us. Back to Basics explains economic models, and Picture This highlights the great variations in the cost of sending money back home.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
'Wising Up to the Costs of Aging' looks at how falling fertility and rising life expectancy have combined to threaten the ability of many countries to provide a decent standard of living for the old without imposing a crushing burden on the young. In our lead article, Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason say that while population aging in rich industrial countries as well as in some middle- and lower-income countries will challenge public and private budgets in many ways, a combination of reduced consumption, postponed retirement, increased asset holdings, and greater investment in human capital should make it possible to meet this challenge without catastrophic consequences. Neil Howe and Richard Jackson publish a fascinating ranking of which countries are best and worst prepared to meet the needs of the growing wave of retirees. We also have articles on a broad range of current topics, including Middle East unemployment, the economic repercussions of the earthquake and devastating tsunami in Japan, and banking in offshore financial centers such as the Cayman Islands. Carmen Reinhart and Jacob Kirkegaard look at how governments are finding ways to manipulate markets to hold down the cost of financing huge public debts, and, in Straight Talk, the IMF's Min Zhu talks about the long-term challenges now facing emerging markets. Prakash Loungani speaks to Nobel Prize winner George Akerlof, and we discuss with three other laureates-Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz, and Robert Solow-what the global economic crisis has taught us. Back to Basics explains economic models, and Picture This highlights the great variations in the cost of sending money back home.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
“Enfrentar con sabiduría los costos de envejecer” analiza cómo la conjunción de menores tasas de fecundidad y una mayor la esperanza de vida compromete la capacidad de los países para ofrecer condiciones de vida decentes para los ancianos sin imponer una carga abrumadora sobre los jóvenes. En nuestro artículo central, Ronald Lee y Andrew Mason argumentan que el envejecimiento demográfico en los países industriales ricos, así como en los países de mediano y bajo ingreso, pondrá a prueba de múltiples maneras a los presupuestos estatales y privados; combinando una reducción del consumo, el retraso de la jubilación, un aumento de las inversiones en activos y una mayor inversión en capital humano sería posible hacer frente a este desafío sin que tenga consecuencias catastróficas. Neil Howe y Richard Jackson publican una clasificación fascinante sobre el grado de preparación de los países para hacer frente a la creciente oleada de jubilados. También se incluyen artículos sobre diversos temas de actualidad, como el desempleo en Oriente Medio, las repercusiones económicas del terremoto y el devastador tsunami en Japón, y sobre la actividad bancaria en centros financieros offshore como las islas Caimán. Carmen Reinhart y Jacob Kirkegaard analizan cómo los gobiernos están encontrando maneras de manipular los mercados para contener el costo de financiamiento del enorme volumen de deuda y en “Hablando claro”, Min Zhu, del FMI, se refiere a los desafíos de largo plazo que deben abordar los mercados emergentes. Prakash Loungani conversa con el Premio Nóbel George Akerlof. También analizamos las enseñanzas de la crisis económica mundial con otros tres galardonados: Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz y Robert Solow. En “Vuelta a lo esencial” se explican los modelos económicos y en “Bajo la lupa” se destacan las grandes variaciones del costo de los giros de dinero al país de origen.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Au sommaire de ce numéro, intitulé « Comment assumer le poids des ans » : la baisse des taux de fécondité et l'augmentation de l'espérance de vie mettent à mal la capacité de nombreux pays d’assurer un niveau de vie décent pour leurs seniors sans imposer une charge écrasante aux jeunes. Dans l'article de fond, Ronald Lee et Andrew Mason expliques qu'il est certain que le vieillissement de la population dans les pays industrialisés riches et dans certains pays à revenu intermédiaire ou à faible revenu va mettre les budgets publics et privés à rude épreuve, mais qu'en agissant sur plusieurs fronts (réduction de la consommation, relèvement de l’âge de la retraite, accumulation d’actifs et investissements plus importants dans le capital humain), il devrait être possible de relever le défi sans entraîner de conséquences catastrophiques. Neil Howe et Richard Jackson nous donnent un classement étonnant des pays les mieux et les moins bien préparés à absorber une vague de retraités qui s'amplifie. Plusieurs articles sont consacrés à diverses questions d'actualité, dont le chômage au Moyen-Orient, les répercussions économiques du séisme et du tsunami dévastateurs au Japon et les activités bancaires des places financières offshore telles que les Îles Caïmans. Carmen Reinhart et Jacob Kirkegaard examinent comment les gouvernements s'arrangent pour manipuler les marchés afin de contenir le coût du financement d'énormes dettes publiques et, dans la rubrique Entre nous, Min Zhu, du FMI, explique que les pays émergents doivent s'adapter à la nouvelle réalité mondiale en mettant à profit leur réussite économique et en s'attaquant à certains de leurs problèmes à long terme. Dans Paroles d'économistes, Prakash Loungani s'entretient avec le lauréat du prix Nobel George Akerlof et trois autres lauréats, Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz et Robert Solow, débattent des conséquences de la crise mondiale et de ce qu'elle nous a enseigné. La rubrique « L’ABC de l’économie » explique les modèles économiques, tandis que « Pleins feux » illustrent les importants écarts du coût des envois de fonds.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis led to a surge in government debt and financing needs as many countries in the Middle East and Central Asia reacted swiftly to mitigate the pandemic’s impact. Although several of these countries successfully accessed international financial markets, domestic banks covered a significant share of emerging markets’ financing needs, further expanding their already significant exposure to the public sector. By contrast, most low-income countries (LICs) had a small response to the crisis because of financing and policy space constraints. Looking ahead, public gross financing needs in most emerging markets in the Middle East and Central Asia are expected to remain elevated in 2021–22, with downside risks in the event of tighter global financial conditions and/or if fiscal consolidation is delayed due to weaker-than-expected recovery. However, further reliance on domestic financing will reduce banks’ ability to support the private sector’s emergence from the crisis, thus prolonging the recovery. Credible medium-term fiscal and debt management strategies, together with policy actions to develop domestic capital markets and mitigate banks’ overexposure to the sovereign would reduce financing risks, address the elevated debt burdens, and entrench financial stability.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis led to a surge in government debt and financing needs as many countries in the Middle East and Central Asia reacted swiftly to mitigate the pandemic’s impact. Although several of these countries successfully accessed international financial markets, domestic banks covered a significant share of emerging markets’ financing needs, further expanding their already significant exposure to the public sector. By contrast, most low-income countries (LICs) had a small response to the crisis because of financing and policy space constraints. Looking ahead, public gross financing needs in most emerging markets in the Middle East and Central Asia are expected to remain elevated in 2021–22, with downside risks in the event of tighter global financial conditions and/or if fiscal consolidation is delayed due to weaker-than-expected recovery. However, further reliance on domestic financing will reduce banks’ ability to support the private sector’s emergence from the crisis, thus prolonging the recovery. Credible medium-term fiscal and debt management strategies, together with policy actions to develop domestic capital markets and mitigate banks’ overexposure to the sovereign would reduce financing risks, address the elevated debt burdens, and entrench financial stability.

International Monetary Fund
The Arab Republic of Egypt’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that the externally driven recovery has gained steam underpinned by a moderate revival in consumption and improved confidence. The Egyptian pound has appreciated, the stock market has reached record highs, and the current account surplus has increased, enabling banks and the Central Bank of Egypt to strengthen their net foreign asset position. The monetary policy did not contain inflation below double-digit rates, and government borrowing and debt remained high.