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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

This Technical Assistance report on Argentina sets out IMF staff’s views on a feasible macroeconomic framework that could underpin a debt restructuring operation that would restore debt sustainability with high probability. Given that the authorities are in the process of elaborating the precise content of their policy agenda, the feasible macroeconomic framework is anchored around the authorities’ broad policy announcements and predicated on the IMF staff’s view that a set of policies could be fully developed and implemented to render the macroeconomic framework achievable. However, there are important downside risks to the feasible macroeconomic framework, especially if the adverse global and domestic economic effects of the fast-moving COVID-19 pandemic are larger and more prolonged than assumed in this note. Economic conditions are rapidly worsening, and financial conditions are characterized by very high volatility. This greatly increases the uncertainty about the macroeconomic framework, with potential implications for the IMF staff’s assessment of debt sustainability.

International Monetary Fund

The transitional program is broadly on track and quantitative program targets have been met, but structural reforms have been delayed. There are still risks to revenues and expenditures from possible judicial decisions, and the fiscal program may need to be adapted for changes in the macroeconomic framework. Monetary policy continues to face significant uncertainties, and priority needs to be given to providing a predictable regulatory framework for the banking system. Policy preparation can facilitate the transition to the new government.

International Monetary Fund

Argentina’s First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and a Request for Waiver of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria are reviewed. Favorable conditions allowed a further strengthening of the external position, though external arrears continued to increase. Congress has approved all the components of the government’s anti-tax evasion package, including the tightening of rules on invoicing by commodity exporters, providing tax tribunals in Buenos Aires with federal jurisdiction, and introducing new penalties to reduce tax evasion.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Fourth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Applicability and Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Staff Supplement

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Request for Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report

International Monetary Fund

Good progress has been made in stabilizing the economic and social situation since the crisis. Fiscal adjustment over a prolonged period will bring the public finances to a sustainable path. To protect social expenditures and allow higher public investment, a comprehensive tax reform is required. Strengthening central bank autonomy is essential for the successful implementation of inflation targeting and restructuring of the financial system. Full cooperation with the multilateral development banks is important to secure necessary program financing, re-establishing sustained growth, and reducing widespread poverty.

International Monetary Fund

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that Argentina’s economy has rebounded strongly from the financial crisis in late 2001. Reflecting buoyant domestic demand, real GDP grew close to 9 percent in both 2003 and 2004, bringing real output level back to the peak level achieved prior to the crisis. Growth has continued in the first quarter, and consumer and business confidence indicators remain at high levels. Inflation, however, has accelerated amid rising demand, increased capacity constraints, growing wage pressures, and monetary accommodation.