The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
The capital needs that will enable Eastern Europe to catch up to EC standards of living are assessed within the framework of a constant elasticity of substitution production function. This function, parameterized on the EC, is assumed to apply, with certain inefficiency factors, to Eastern Europe in 1992. Quantitative results, given the heroic assumptions required, are bounded by large ranges. The approach provides a framework for assessing the factors that will determine future capital needs in Eastern Europe and underscores the crucial role of efficiency gains in this process.
This paper reviews economic developments in Bulgaria during 1990–95. In 1993, GDP continued to contract, albeit more slowly than previously. Real GDP declined by 2.4 percent owing to a drought-induced collapse in agricultural output. As consumption-driven imports rose and exports fell, the lower real GDP in 1993 was accompanied by a large current account deficit. The adoption of restrictive fiscal and incomes policies in 1994 enabled Bulgaria to retain the gains in external competitiveness acquired from the nominal depreciation.
The paper assesses key aspects of Bulgaria's competitiveness. The challenge is to stay on course and persist with policies that will maintain and strengthen competitiveness. Implementation of the ambitious reform policy with respect to the pension and health care systems is required. The reasons for and implications of low bank credit to the private sector in Bulgaria, and measures to facilitate prudent credit growth are discussed. The statistical data on the economic indices of Bulgaria are also presented in the paper.
This Selected Issues paper on Bulgaria investigates possible driving forces behind the investment boom based on cross-country evidence. The diagnosis of the drivers behind the investment boom is important as it is key to assessing Bulgaria’s economic prospects, vulnerabilities, and policy challenges. The available evidence is less than clear-cut, but broadly suggests that the investment boom reflects to a large extent a one-off reassessment of Bulgaria’s riskiness as an investment location. The paper also investigates why Bulgaria’s GDP growth rate did not respond more strongly to the investment boom.