This chapter was prepared by a staff team composed of Vizhdan Boranova, Kamil Dybczak, and Sylwia Nowak, with input from Raju Huidrom and Nemanja Jovanovic. The team was led by Emil Stavrev under the general guidance of Jörg Decressin. Laura Papi provided useful advice and comments. Nomelie Veluz provided administrative support. The chapter reflects data and developments as of October 15, 2018.
This chapter was prepared by an IMF staff team composed of Cheikh Anta Gueye, Marco Arena, Tingyun Chen, Seung Mo Choi, Nan Geng, Tonny Lybek, and Evan Papageorgiou. The team was led by Tomas Dorsey and Cheikh Anta Gueye under the overall guidance of Jörg Decressin and Enrica Detragiache. Laura Papi provided useful advice and comments. Hannah Jung and Nomelie Veluz provided administrative support.
Juliana Dutra Araujo, Manasa Patnam, Ms. Adina Popescu, Mr. Fabian Valencia, and Weijia Yao
This paper builds a novel database on the effects of macroprudential policy drawing from 58 empirical studies, comprising over 6,000 results on a wide range of instruments and outcome variables. It encompasses information on statistical significance, standardized magnitudes, and other characteristics of the estimates. Using meta-analysis techniques, the paper estimates average effects to find i) statistically significant effects on credit, but with considerable heterogeneity across instruments; ii) weaker and more imprecise effects on house prices; iii) quantitatively stronger effects in emerging markets and among studies using micro-level data; and iii) statistically significant evidence of leakages and spillovers. Other findings include relatively stronger impacts for tightening than loosening actions and negative effects on economic activity in the near term.
Economic activity continued to expand in the first half of 2018, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace, mainly in advanced Europe. Domestic demand, supported by stronger employment and wages, remains the main engine of growth. However, the external environment has become less supportive and is expected to soften further in 2019 owing to slowing global demand, trade tensions, and higher energy prices. Tighter financial conditions in vulnerable emerging market economies and maturing business cycles are also weighing on activity. Accordingly, growth is projected to moderate from 2.8 percent in 2017 to 2.3 percent in 2018 and 1.9 percent in 2019. That said, it is expected to remain above potential in most countries in the region.
Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Mr. Ehsan Ebrahimy, Ms. Deniz O Igan, and Mr. Damien Puy
Credit booms are a focal point for policymakers and scholars of financial crises. Yet our understanding of how the real sector behaves during booms, and why some booms may go bad, is limited. Despite a large and growing body of literature, most of the work has focused on aggregate economic activity, and relatively little is known about which industries benefit and which suffer during these episodes. This note aims to fill this gap by analyzing disaggregated output and employment data in a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies between 1970 and 2014.