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International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Volatility is defined as the standard deviation of the monthly proportionate changes in average exchange rates over the period indicated.

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

The global economic expansion continues but it has become less even. While global financial conditions remain broadly accommodative and supportive of growth in the near term, financial conditions in some emerging market economies have tightened since the April 2018 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR). This tightening has been driven by a combination of country-specific factors, worsening external financing conditions, and trade tensions. As a result, near-term risks to financial stability have increased modestly, while medium-term risks remain elevated because of persistent financial vulnerabilities linked to high debt levels and stretched asset valuations. Looking ahead, a further escalation of trade tensions, as well as rising geopolitical risks and policy uncertainty in major economies, could lead to a sudden deterioration in risk sentiment, triggering a broad-based correction in global capital markets and a sharp tightening of global financial conditions.