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International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Following are edited excerpts from IMF Managing Director Horst Köhler’s remarks to the members of the Deutsche Bundestag on April 2 in Berlin. The full text is available on the IMF’s website (


This article examines empirical evidence on the volatility and uncertainty of aid flows and their main policy implications. Aid is found to be more volatile than fiscal revenues—particularly in highly aid-dependent countries—and shortfalls in aid and domestic revenue tend to coincide. The article also finds that uncertainty about aid disbursements is large and that the information content of commitments made by donors is either very small or statistically insignificant. Specific policies and broader international efforts to cope with these features of aid are briefly discussed

Albert Waterston, David Williams, and Robert F. Skillings

• Singer, H. W., International Development: Growth and Change, New York, N.Y., U.S.A., McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1964, xiv + 295 pp., $7.50; • Bhagwati, Jagdish, The Economics of Underdeveloped Countries, New York, N.Y., U.S.A., McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1966, 254 pp., $2.45; • Birmingham, W., and A. G. Ford (Eds.), Planning and Growth in Rich and Poor Countries, New York, N.Y., U.S.A., Frederick A. Praeger, 1966, 267 pp., $7.50; • Horowitz, Irving Louis, Three Worlds of Development: The Theory and Practice of International Stratification, New York, N.Y., U.S.A., Oxford University Press, 1966, xiv + 475 pp., $8.50; • Fryer, D. W., World Economic Development, New York, N.Y., U.S.A., McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1965, xi + 627 pp., $8.95; • Scott, Andrew M., with William A. Lucas and Trudi M. Lucas, Simulation and National Development, New York, N.Y., U.S.A., John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1966, ix + 177 pp., $5.95.

International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues paper analyzes macroeconomic fluctuations in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). The paper describes data, along with the estimation technique used to ensure stationarity of the data. The empirical regularities of macroeconomic fluctuations in the ECCU are described, examining the relationship between a set of macroeconomic time series and domestic output, for each of the six IMF members of the ECCU. The paper also explores the determinants of macroeconomic volatility in the ECCU.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper highlights the sources of payments problems in less developed countries. Growth in the industrial countries has a direct impact on the current account of the developing countries through its influence on both the prices and volumes of their exports. An increase in the real effective exchange rate is clearly a fundamental determinant of a deteriorating current account since, other things being equal, it tends to raise domestic demand for imports and to reduce foreign demand for exports.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This is the final issue for 2006 (Volume 53), and contains another paper in the occasional Special Data Section that seeks to measure financial development in the Middle East and North Africa by utilizing a new database. The issue also contains a comment from Jacques J. Polak on parity reversion in real exchange rates.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy.
Robert M. Oyewole and Carlos Martorell Flores

Cracks in the System: World Economy Under Stress" explores the rapidly changing institutional and policymaking landscape around a financial crisis that now threatens a deep and prolonged global recession. The lead article looks at how the world got into the mess and what to do about it, both now and over the medium term. Other articles review options for changing the rules of world finance, examine the case for modernizing the way countries coordinate their policies, and try to draw some lessons from past financial crises. The "other crisis" of high food and fuel prices is also assessed, as the effects extend past the mid-2008 price peak. "People in Economics" profiles Robert Shiller; "Picture This" illustrates how middle-income economies can reach high-income status; "Back to Basics" looks at all the components that make up gross national product; and "Country Focus" spotlights Saudi Arabia.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Tanzanian President Benjamin William Mkapa’s remarks on the inauguration of East AFRITAC could not have been clearer or more emphatic. If Africa is to define its own economic destiny, it must strengthen its ability to design and implement sound economic policies. And policy ownership and capacity building are what the new regional technical assistance center, which opened October 24 in Dar es Salaam, is all about.