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International Monetary Fund

BACKGROUND NOTE 4: USING THE IPF ANALYTICAL TOOLKIT TO ENHANCE POLICY ASSESSMENTS

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brazil’s growth has decelerated in recent years. The boost from decade-old reforms, expanding labor income, and favorable external conditions, which enabled consumption and credit-led growth and underpinned sustained poverty reduction, has lost steam. Investment has been sluggish, reflecting eroding competitiveness, a worsening business environment, and lower commodity prices. The IMF staff projects negative output growth of 1 percent in 2015, with some drag from tighter fiscal and monetary policies and from the cuts in investment by Petrobras, adding to the downward momentum in activity carried over from 2014.

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Marcin Kolasa, Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, Mr. Suman S Basu, Ms. Emine Boz, and Dimitre Milkov
Suman S Basu and Gita Gopinath
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department, International Monetary Fund. Research Dept., International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development, and International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Mr. Eduardo Borensztein
This paper analyzes some of the lessons that can be drawn from the experience of Eastern Europe in the process of transition to a market economy that is under way, and examines some key challenges currently facing policymakers in these economies. The paper studies the constraints affecting the general strategy of reform--rapid versus gradual--that was adopted, and the output decline initially experienced and its effect on medium-term growth perspectives. The paper also discusses the implementation of mass privatization schemes, and the type and extent of government intervention in the restructuring process. This is a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment and the author(s) would welcome any comments on the present text. Citations should refer to a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment of the International Monetary Fund, mentioning the authors) and the date of issuance. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper highlights the Informational Annex on Republic of North Macedonia. The National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia (NBRNM) participates in the foreign exchange market, in order to achieve the goals of the monetary and foreign exchange policies. The NBRNM implements the monetary strategy of targeting the nominal exchange rate against the euro. The intermediary objective of the monetary policy is to maintain a stable denar exchange rate. Thus, the NBRNM maintains a stable exchange rate within a narrow band of bid-ask exchange rates determined by the Committee for Operational Monetary Policy. The de facto exchange rate arrangement is classified as a stabilized arrangement. North Macedonia has accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3 and 4 and currently maintains an exchange system free of multiple currency practices and restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions. The first consultation with the Republic of North Macedonia was concluded in August 1993. The last consultation was concluded on January 22, 2020.
Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek and Mr. Julian Berengaut
The paper analyzes the initial output decline in transition economies by estimating a crosssection model stressing two major factors-conflicts and the legacies of the Soviet period. We link the Soviet legacies in place at the outset of the transition to the subsequent path for the development of market-related institutions. Institutional development (as proxied by measures of corruption) is used as an intermediate variable. An instrumental variable approach is followed to derive estimates that are not biased by the possible endogeneity of corruption with respect to output developments. Assuming that the extent of Soviet legacies was positively correlated with the length of the communist rule allows us to use the years under the Soviet regime as an instrument.