Although the impact of the global crisis has been severe, real per capita GDP growth stayed positive in two-thirds of low-income countries (LICs), unlike in previous global downturns, and in contrast to richer countries. Emerging from the Global Crisis explores how LICS have coped with the global economic crisis. It reviews the impact of the crisis on LICs, domestic policy responses to the crisis, and the precrisis conditions of select countries. The prospects and challenges that LICs face are also considered. Sections of the paper look at growth prospects, policy recommendations, the general macroeconomic outlook, as well as the rebuilding of fiscal buffers. The authors also "stress-test" LICs' exposure to further volatility by using a hypothetical "downside" recovery scenario.
Mr. Marco Arena, Ms. Ruo Chen, Mr. Alfredo Cuevas, Karim Foda, Mr. Borja Gracia, Miss Estelle X Liu, Alex Pienkowski, Christiane Roehler, Shituo Sun, Mr. Sebastian Weber, Xin Cindy Xu, and Ms. Yu Shi
In Europe, the severe human toll of the COVID-19 pandemic was compounded by the deepest fall in economic activity in modern history. Yet this huge decline in output did surprisingly little damage to the aggregate financial balance sheets of firms and households. This paper discusses how unprecedented policy support transferred private sector income losses to the public sector’s balance sheet and contrasts this experience to that of the global financial crisis.