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Mr. Atish R. Ghosh


As the Ukrainian economy goes beyond its stabilization phase and toward a comprehensive program of structural reform, articulating a full macroeconomic scenario for the medium term becomes increasingly important. Such a scenario is not an unconditional forecast of the most likely evolution of the economy over the coming years. Indeed, the medium-term scenario will be very much predicated upon a set of often difficult, if not painful, micro- and macroeconomic adjustment policies. Nor, given existing data constraints, is it possible to generate a true conditional forecast (together with associated standard errors). Rather, the medium-term scenario is intended to provide a simple macroeconomic “reality check” upon projections for economic targets such as output growth and inflation. For example, generating rapid economic growth would be relatively simple if the country were willing to undertake sufficient investment. But achieving such an investment rate might entail unacceptable declines in consumption, or an unsustainably large buildup of external debt. Thus the challenge in developing a medium-term scenario lies in choosing reasonable macroeconomic targets that can be attained under plausible assumptions about the private sector’s behavior and the government’s willingness to undertake the necessary policy measures.

Mr. Eswar S Prasad, Mr. Steven V Dunaway, and Mr. Jahangir Aziz


It is widely believed1 that the reforms of 1991, both in the industrial sector and the financial sector, released a variety of forces that propelled India into a new growth trajectory.2 In this paper, we are going to assess the role that the banks played in making this growth happen and the impact that these reforms had on banks.

John Isaac


Traditionally, the core functions of banking were to (1) accept money from, and collect checks for, customers; (2) honor checks for orders drawn on them by customers; (3) keep current accounts, or something of that kind, in which customers’ debits and credits are entered; and, of course, (4) lend. Banks derived their income largely from the margin between the interest rates they paid on money deposited with them and the interest rates they charged on money lent by them.

Mr. V. Sundararajan


The coordination of policy objectives, instruments, and institutional and operational arrangements of public debt and monetary management assumes particular significance in the process of financial sector reform and stabilization of economies in transition.1 In market economies, such coordination can be achieved through either (1) the sharing of common objectives and pursuit of joint actions to achieve those objectives or (2) the work of market forces in cases where there is strict institutional separation of objectives, functions, and instruments. In the latter case, coordination is achieved with the central bank exercising operational autonomy in designing and implementing monetary policy, and the monetary and fiscal authorities operating in different segments of well-developed financial markets, supported by a separation of debt and monetary instruments. In either case, arrangements exist for the sharing of needed information and of responsibilities to support the day-to-day execution of monetary and debt policy and the effective pursuit of stabilization goals.