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Cover Departmental Papers
Macroprudential Policy Effects: Evidence and Open Questions
Nina Biljanovska
,
Sophia Chen
,
Mr. R. G Gelos
,
Ms. Deniz O Igan
,
Mr. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
,
Erlend Nier
, and
Mr. Fabian Valencia
The global financial crisis (GFC) underscored the need for additional policy tools to safeguard financial stability and ultimately macroeconomic stability. Systemic financial vulnerabilities had developed under a seemingly tranquil macroeconomic surface of low inflation and small output gaps. This challenged the precrisis view that achieving these traditional policy targets was a sufficient condition for macroeconomic stability. Thus, new tools had to be deployed to target specific financial vulnerabilities and to build buffers to cushion adverse aggregate shocks, while allowing traditional policy levers, including monetary and microprudential policies to focus on their traditional roles. Macroprudential policy measures emerged as the solution to this gap. Some of these measures had been used before the GFC (mostly in emerging markets). But it was only after the crisis that they were more widely adopted, and the toolkit expanded. This spurred a growing body of empirical research on the effects and potential shortfalls of these measures, with a further deepening of this knowledge gaining importance as policymakers confront increased financial stability risks in the post-pandemic world. Recognizing that there still is much to learn, this paper takes stock of our expanding understanding about the effects (and side effects) of macroprudential measures by focusing on these questions: What have we learned about the effects of macroprudential policy in containing the buildup of vulnerabilities? What do we know about the effects on economic activity and resilience? How do policy effects vary with conditions and over time? How important are leakages and circumvention? How do the effects on credit depend on other policies?
Keywords:
macroprudential policy financial stability; policy effect; IMF Library; Macroprudential effect; Macroprudential buffer; Macroprudential Policy database; Macroprudential policy; Macroprudential policy instruments; Credit; Countercyclical capital buffers; Bank credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Botswana: Technical Assistance Report-National Accounts Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted during October 2022 to assist Statistics Botswana (SB) in the development of the strategic plan for the next rebase of the national accounts statistics. The SB will be focusing on the rebase over the coming years and has no plans to expand on what they currently produce unless adequate resources are obtained. The mission reviewed and suggested updates to the outline of the rebase with objectives and key tasks and to the implementation strategy. The timeline for the rebasing exercise was reviewed and agreed. The rebase will officially commence in April 2023 and is likely to take four to five years to complete, i.e., finish in 2028/29. The next base year will be 2024 given the timings of when key surveys will be undertaken, namely the Agriculture Census (2024/25), the Botswana Multi Topic Household Survey (BMTHS) (2023/24) and the Census of Economic Establishments (CEE) 2024. The questionnaires used in the last rebase were reviewed with the aim of improving the response rate and minimizing costs. The mission also provided some other examples of questionnaires which should provide some guidance.
Keywords:
national accounts; rebase; base year
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Tajikistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Strong growth continued in 2022 with minimal disruption from the war in Ukraine, while strong financial inflows supported domestic demand and liquidity. Although negative spillovers from the war have not materialized, it remains unclear to what extent Tajikistan will continue to be relatively unaffected by weaker economic activity in Russia.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Peru: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Against the background of a strong economic performance over the last quarter of a century, Peru has been hit by multiple shocks in the last several years. Adequate policies and very strong policy frameworks have made the economy resilient. Following a steep decline in 2020 at the outset of the pandemic and a rapid recovery in 2021, growth slowed significantly in 2022 as the policy stimulus was withdrawn and external and financial conditions deteriorated. Recent political developments suggest that the new government needs to work across the political spectrum to create broader political consensus, reduce uncertainty, ease social tensions, and boost growth.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Panama: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Panama
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Panama was hit hard by the covid-19 pandemic, but the recovery has been strong. GDP expanded by 15.3 percent in 2021 and a projected 9 percent in 2022. Inflation is low compared with other countries, in part the result of temporary subsidies on fuel and food. The fiscal deficit declined from 10½ percent of GDP in 2020 to 4 percent of GDP in 2022 and central government gross debt is estimated at 60 percent of GDP at end-2022. Banks are, on average, well capitalized and liquid. As insurance against external shocks, the IMF Executive Board approved a two-year Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) arrangement for 500 percent of quota, equivalent to US$2.7 billion (SDR 1.884 billion), on January 19, 2021.
Cover Policy Papers
Implementation Plan in Response to the Board-Endorsed Recommendations from the IEO Evaluation Report on IMF Engagement with Small Developing States
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents a Management Implementation Plan (MIP) with actions to take forward the Board-endorsed recommendations from the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO)’s report on IMF Engagement with Small Developing States (SDS). The actions in the MIP are broad in scope, touching on all modalities of the Fund’s engagement with SDS, and seek to be comprehensive, self-reinforcing, cost-effective, and designed to be adopted as a package. The MIP aims to support a targeted and effective recalibration of engagement with SDS; enhance IMF’s surveillance and capacity development in SDS members; strengthen the Fund’s lending engagement with SDS, in line with the applicable policy frameworks; and secure an effective, well-tailored and more continuous staff presence in SDS.
Keywords:
Capacity development; climate; lending; policy frameworks; training; small developing states; staffing; surveillance; SDS staff guidance note; SDS member; SDS-SGN update; presence in SDS; IMF's transparency policy; Climate change; Budget planning and preparation; Financial sector; Caribbean; Global; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Benefiting from an effective policy response to the pandemic and highly favorable terms of trade, Colombia’s economy grew at one of the fastest rates among emerging economies in 2022. This demand-led recovery, however, contributed to internal and external imbalances, for which policy tightening has been now underway. A new administration took office in August 2022, with social equity and climate at the center of its ambitious reform agenda.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-Operationalizing the New Bank Recovery and Resolution Framework
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
In response to a request from the National Bank of Georgia (NBG), the Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted a Technical Assistance (TA) mission during September 5–16, 2022 as follow-up to the mission that took place during March 17–April 20, 2022. The first mission provided initial assistance to the authorities in operationalizing the new bank recovery and resolution framework, building on the recommendations from the 2021 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). This second mission deepened that assistance by providing further guidance on, among others, (i) the architecture of the resolution framework; including triggers, resolvability assessments, and resolution planning; (ii) the operationalization of key resolution tools (notably, by reviewing playbooks for the sale of business and bridge banks tools); (iii) data requirements for undertaking the valuations necessary to support resolution; (iv) resolution funding options; and (v) interagency coordination and communications. Moreover, the mission discussed potential impediments (and associated mitigants) to effective resolution and reviewed the NBG’s progress with the implementation of the recommendations on early intervention, the Interagency Financial Stability Committee, and other topics that were covered by the first mission.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Vanuatu: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Vanuatu
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Following a successful COVID-19 containment strategy, the border reopened in July 2022, and tourism is returning to Vanuatu. Economic activity is expected to be strong in the near term, with real GDP growing around 3.4 percent in 2023, as tourism and construction activities resume. High imported prices are likely to stoke inflation and push the current account into deficit, while fiscal policy will turn more expansionary. The Economic Citizenship Program (ECP) is facing significant challenges, with important implications for revenue and governance, while Air Vanuatu, the national airline, is facing serious operational and financial difficulties. Key structural vulnerabilities relating to climate change, limited infrastructure development capacity, and weak governance, persist.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; reconstruction effort; fuel shortage; money market rate; baseline projection; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; ECP revenue; Natural disasters; External sector statistics; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand; Asia and Pacific