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Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil

Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil »

Volume/Issue: 2020/47

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nooman Rebei , and Rashid Sbia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513528601.001

ISBN: 9781513528601

Keywords: Oil prices, Supply and demand, Oil production, Purchasing power parity, Real sector, Oil market, Vector autoregressions, Narrative analysis, Bayesian estimation, Kalman filtering

This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evide...

Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil1

Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil1 »

Source: Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil

Volume/Issue: 2020/47

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nooman Rebei , and Rashid Sbia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513528601

Keywords: Oil prices, Supply and demand, Oil production, Purchasing power parity, Real sector, Oil market, Vector autoregressions, Narrative analysis, Bayesian estimation, Kalman filtering

This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evide...

Managed Trade: What Could be Possible Spillover Effects of a Potential Trade Agreement Between the U.S. and China?

Managed Trade: What Could be Possible Spillover Effects of a Potential Trade Agreement Between the U.S. and China? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/251

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , Shan Chen , Pragyan Deb , Albe Gjonbalaj , Swarnali Hannan , and Adil Mohommad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513518312.001

ISBN: 9781513518312

Keywords: Bilateral trade, Balance of trade, Patterns of trade, Trading systems, Trade policy, Managed trade deal, spillover effects., WP, extra purchase, size-based

The trade discussions between the U.S. and China are on-going. Not much is known about the shape and nature of a potential agreement, but it seems possible that it would include elements of managed trade. This pape...

Managed Trade: What Could be Possible Spillover Effects of a Potential Trade Agreement Between the U.S. and China?1

Managed Trade: What Could be Possible Spillover Effects of a Potential Trade Agreement Between the U.S. and China?1 »

Source: Managed Trade: What Could be Possible Spillover Effects of a Potential Trade Agreement Between the U.S. and China?

Volume/Issue: 2019/251

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , Shan Chen , Pragyan Deb , Albe Gjonbalaj , Swarnali Hannan , and Adil Mohommad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2019

ISBN: 9781513518312

Keywords: Bilateral trade, Balance of trade, Patterns of trade, Trading systems, Trade policy, Managed trade deal, spillover effects., WP, extra purchase, size-based

The trade discussions between the U.S. and China are on-going. Not much is known about the shape and nature of a potential agreement, but it seems possible that it would include elements of managed trade. This pape...

The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China's Shrinking Current Account Surplus1

The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China's Shrinking Current Account Surplus1 »

Source: The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China's Shrinking Current Account Surplus

Volume/Issue: 2019/244

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pragyan Deb , Albe Gjonbalaj , and Swarnali Hannan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2019

ISBN: 9781513516097

Keywords: Accounting, Aging, Assets, Balance of trade, Bank deposits, Bilateral trade, Bonds, Capital, Capital account, Capital flows

China's current account surplus has declined significantly from its peak in 2008 and the external position in 2018 was in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. While cyclical factors and expans...

The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China's Shrinking Current Account Surplus

The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China's Shrinking Current Account Surplus »

Volume/Issue: 2019/244

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pragyan Deb , Albe Gjonbalaj , and Swarnali Hannan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513516097.001

ISBN: 9781513516097

Keywords: Accounting, Aging, Assets, Balance of trade, Bank deposits, Bilateral trade, Bonds, Capital, Capital account, Capital flows

China's current account surplus has declined significantly from its peak in 2008 and the external position in 2018 was in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. While cyclical factors and expans...

Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17

Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17 »

Source: Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17

Volume/Issue: 2019/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Majdi Debbich

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2019

ISBN: 9781513514567

Keywords: Oil producing countries, National income, Oil production, Economic growth, Development, conflict, nighttime lights, WP, nightlights, real GDP

This paper uses an untapped source of satellite-recorded nightlights and gas flaring data to characterize the contraction of economic activity in Yemen throughout the ongoing conflict that erupted in 2015. Using es...

Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17

Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17 »

Volume/Issue: 2019/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Majdi Debbich

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513514567.001

ISBN: 9781513514567

Keywords: Oil producing countries, National income, Oil production, Economic growth, Development, conflict, nighttime lights, WP, nightlights, real GDP

This paper uses an untapped source of satellite-recorded nightlights and gas flaring data to characterize the contraction of economic activity in Yemen throughout the ongoing conflict that erupted in 2015. Using es...

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2019/215

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Matthew Kahn , Kamiar Mohaddes , Ryan Ng , M. Pesaran , Mehdi Raissi , and Jui-Chung Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513514598.001

ISBN: 9781513514598

Keywords: Greenhouse gas emissions, Economic growth, Real sector, Economic cooperation, Economic indicators, Climate change, adaptation, counterfactual analysis., WP, historical norm

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables-defined as deviation...

The Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms in Morocco

The Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms in Morocco »

Volume/Issue: 2019/222

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Babacar Sarr , Mokhtar Benlamine , and Zsuzsa Munkacsi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513513768.001

ISBN: 9781513513768

Keywords: Access to foreign markets, Bankruptcy, Banks, Basket of currency peg, Capital, Capital accumulation, Capital flows, Capital formation, Commodity markets, Commodity prices

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects and sequencing of (LMRs) and product (PMRs) market reforms in Morocco. It finds that introducing LMRs and PMRs simultaneously would add about 2.5 percentage points (pp)...