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Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning1

Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning1 »

Source: Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning

Volume/Issue: 2020/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marijn Bolhuis , and Brett Rayner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513531724

Keywords: Production growth, Capacity utilization, Economic growth, Stock markets, Emerging markets, Forecasts, Nowcasting, Machine learning, GDP growth, Cross-validation

We develop a framework to nowcast (and forecast) economic variables with machine learning techniques. We explain how machine learning methods can address common shortcomings of traditional OLS-based models and use...

Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning

Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning »

Volume/Issue: 2020/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marijn Bolhuis , and Brett Rayner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513531724.001

ISBN: 9781513531724

Keywords: Production growth, Capacity utilization, Economic growth, Stock markets, Emerging markets, Forecasts, Nowcasting, Machine learning, GDP growth, Cross-validation

We develop a framework to nowcast (and forecast) economic variables with machine learning techniques. We explain how machine learning methods can address common shortcomings of traditional OLS-based models and use...

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2019 Article IV Consultation with Turkey

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2019 Article IV Consultation with Turkey »

Source: Turkey : 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey

Volume/Issue: 2019/395

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 December 2019

ISBN: 9781513524641

Keywords: Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Central banks, Economic indicators, Real sector, Economic growth, ISCR, CR, lira, state-owned bank, inflation expectation

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Turkey discusses that economic growth has since resumed, buoyed by expansionary fiscal policy, rapid credit provision by state-owned banks, and more favorable external financi...

Turkey
			: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey

Turkey : 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey »

Volume/Issue: 2019/395

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513524641.002

ISBN: 9781513524641

Keywords: Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Central banks, Economic indicators, Real sector, Economic growth, ISCR, CR, lira, state-owned bank, inflation expectation

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Turkey discusses that economic growth has since resumed, buoyed by expansionary fiscal policy, rapid credit provision by state-owned banks, and more favorable external financi...

Turkey
			: Selected Issues

Turkey : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2019/396

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513524665.002

ISBN: 9781513524665

Keywords: External sector, Total factor productivity, Economic conditions, Labor market flexibility, Labor markets, ISCR, CR, technical efficiency, structural reform, product market

This Selected Issues paper on Turkey assesses the role of structural reforms in enhancing productivity growth in advanced and emerging economies and discusses results that are relevant for Turkey. The paper investi...

Statement by Mr. Raci Kaya, Executive Director for Turkey and Mr. Omer Ethem Bayar, Advisor to the Executive Director

Statement by Mr. Raci Kaya, Executive Director for Turkey and Mr. Omer Ethem Bayar, Advisor to the Executive Director »

Source: Turkey : 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey

Volume/Issue: 2019/395

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 December 2019

ISBN: 9781513524641

Keywords: Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Central banks, Economic indicators, Real sector, Economic growth, ISCR, CR, lira, state-owned bank, inflation expectation

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Turkey discusses that economic growth has since resumed, buoyed by expansionary fiscal policy, rapid credit provision by state-owned banks, and more favorable external financi...

Turkey

Turkey »

Source: Turkey : Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2019/396

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 December 2019

ISBN: 9781513524665

Keywords: External sector, Total factor productivity, Economic conditions, Labor market flexibility, Labor markets, ISCR, CR, technical efficiency, structural reform, product market

This Selected Issues paper on Turkey assesses the role of structural reforms in enhancing productivity growth in advanced and emerging economies and discusses results that are relevant for Turkey. The paper investi...

Turkey: Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation

Turkey: Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation »

Source: Turkey : 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey

Volume/Issue: 2019/395

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 December 2019

ISBN: 9781513524641

Keywords: Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Central banks, Economic indicators, Real sector, Economic growth, ISCR, CR, lira, state-owned bank, inflation expectation

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Turkey discusses that economic growth has since resumed, buoyed by expansionary fiscal policy, rapid credit provision by state-owned banks, and more favorable external financi...

Turkey: Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex

Turkey: Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex »

Source: Turkey : 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey

Volume/Issue: 2019/395

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 December 2019

ISBN: 9781513524641

Keywords: Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Central banks, Economic indicators, Real sector, Economic growth, ISCR, CR, lira, state-owned bank, inflation expectation

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Turkey discusses that economic growth has since resumed, buoyed by expansionary fiscal policy, rapid credit provision by state-owned banks, and more favorable external financi...

News-based Sentiment Indicators

News-based Sentiment Indicators »

Volume/Issue: 2019/273

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chengyu Huang , Sean Simpson , Daria Ulybina , and Agustin Roitman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513518374.001

ISBN: 9781513518374

Keywords: Balance sheets, Financial crises, Business cycles, Banking crisis, Currency crises, early warning indicators, risk, crisis, sentiment, WP

We construct sentiment indices for 20 countries from 1980 to 2019. Relying on computational text analysis, we capture specific language like 'fear', 'risk', 'hedging', 'opinion', and, 'crisis', as well as 'positive...