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Cem Cakmakli, Selva Demiralp, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Sevcan Yesiltas, and Muhammed A. Yildirim
We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model. We measure sectoral supply shocks utilizing teleworking and physical job proximity, and demand shocks with credit card purchases. Both shocks are also affected from changing infection rates under different lockdown scenarios. Being an open economy amplifies the economic costs through two main channels. First, the demand shock has domestic and external components. Second, the initial shock is magnified due to domestic and international input-output linkages.
Mr. Philip Barrett, Maximiliano Appendino, Kate Nguyen, and Jorge de Leon Miranda
We present a new index of social unrest based on counts of relevant media reports. The index consists of individual monthly time series for 130 countries, available with almost no lag, and can be easily and transparently replicated. Spikes in the index identify major events, which correspond very closely to event timelines from external sources for four major regional waves of social unrest. We show that the cross-sectional distribution of the index can be simply and precisely characterized, and that social unrest is associated with a 3 percentage point increase in the frequency of social unrest domestically and a 1 percent increase in neighbors in the next six months. Despite this, social unrest is not a better predictor of future social unrest than the country average rate.
Mr. Jack Bame
This paper notes that, for the first time, the concept and treatment of reinvested earnings in the Fund’s Balance of Payments Manual and the 1993 System of National Accounts are fully harmonized. The paper presents the conceptual basis for the measurement of reinvested earnings and illustrative examples as to recording, from the Fund’s Balance of Payments Compilation Guide and Balance of Payments Textbook. Highlighted are the recommended time of recording of reinvested earnings, the calculation of earnings on a current operating basis, and the calculation of depreciation at replacement cost, notwithstanding possible practical difficulties in implementation.