Browse

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 19 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Society and Social Sciences x
  • Belarus, Republic of x
  • Macroeconomics x
Clear All Modify Search
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance (TA) report on the Republic of Belarus focuses on various aspects of monetary policy modeling. This TA mission was the fifth from series of quarterly IMF TA missions focused on the forecasting and analysis system capacity building. It was mainly aimed to simulate initial conditions and compile a quarterly projection model (QPM)-based forecast scenario as a part of a practical forecasting round at the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) in March. Moreover, the mission worked with the modeling team to deepen its understanding of the QPM’s role in policy decision making and in internal communication. Adopting Inflation Targeting and increasing monetary policy effectiveness would require broad-based reforms as compressively outlined in the developed Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting. This medium-term TA project aims to primarily help the NBRB with medium-term inflation forecasting and policy analysis and related tools to effectively support policy making. The project composed of series of TA and training missions particularly focused on the preparation of forecasts and policy analyses, the medium-term forecasting and policy analysis model, and presentations of the forecasts and policy analysis.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) visited Minsk during for the seventh of the planned eight short-term technical assistance (TA) missions to help the NBRB enhance its modeling, forecasting and policy analysis capacity, and the forecasting and policy analysis system, sponsored by the Swedish International Development Agency. The NBRB is reforming its monetary policy framework in line with recommendations of past IMF TA missions and its Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting with the aim of eventually adopting inflation targeting (IT). Transitioning to IT would require, among other strengthening the monetary policy forecasting and analysis system (FPAS) and better integrating the core quarterly projection model (QPM) into the decision-making process. The mission was mainly aimed at helping with reviewing the initial conditions and compiling a QPM-based forecast as a part of the NBRB’s September forecasting round. The mission, in addition, worked on strengthening processes within the FPAS.
Alex Miksjuk, Mr. Sam Ouliaris, and Mikhail Pranovich
Belarus experienced a sequence of currency crises during 2009-2014. Our empirical results, based on a structural econometric model, suggest that the activist wage policy and extensive state program lending (SPL) conflicted with the tightly managed exchange rate regime and suppressed monetary policy transmission. This created conditions for the unusually frequent crises. At the current juncture, refocusing monetary policy from exchange rate to inflation would help to avoid disorderly external adjustments. The government should abandon wage targets and phase out SPL to remove the underlying source of the imbalances and ensure lasting stabilization.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Belarus examines wage setting, the role of wage targets, as well as wage dynamics, and the relationship with productivity. It finds that wage targets set by the government appear to be the key driver of rapid wage growth. Little regional and sectoral variation also suggests close adherence to official targets and a high degree of government control. Wage growth has outpaced productivity growth as the targets do not take productivity developments into account. In order to resolve these issues, in the short run, the authorities should aim for wage restraint to contain domestic demand and improve competitiveness. More generally, wage targets should be phased out to make way for more market-oriented wage-setting mechanisms. This should be complemented by deeper structural reform, dismantlement of the wider system of mandatory economic targets. wage targets should be eliminated as they restrict the flexibility to respond to market conditions. However, reform of wage setting will not be enough on its own and should be complemented by further structural measures to remove other distortions, such as direct and indirect subsidies to state-owned enterprises, which allow them to generate profit while at the same time maintaining excess employment.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues Paper presents an analysis of Belarus-specific conditions and cross-country research, and proposes a roadmap for real-sector reforms. It highlights distortions resulting from the government’s interference in the economy, and presents an overview of economic benefits of deregulation, labor market liberalization, and enterprise reform. The paper also provides estimates of potential gains for Belarus from conducting structural reforms, and offers a blueprint for restructuring while minimizing the risks of resource dislocation.
International Monetary Fund
The global financial crisis that erupted in late 2008 had a profound impact on Belarus’s economy. The unprecedented external shock necessitated a strong set of corrective measures, including exchange rate adjustment. This Selected Issues paper analyzes whether the corrective measures in the exchange area are sufficient to restore current account sustainability. It examines various pieces of evidence, including basic indicators of competitiveness as well as the macroeconomic balance and external sustainability approaches. It concludes that the substantial misalignment observed in the end of 2008 has been largely corrected.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The speeches made by officials attending the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are published in this volume, along with the press communiqués issued by the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Development Committee at the conclusion of the meetings.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The speeches made by officials attending the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are published in this volume, along with the press communiqués issued by the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Development Committee at the conclusion of the meetings.