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Mr. Andrea Gamba
Jordan’s initiatives to reduce its energy dependency could have substantial macroeconomic implications, but will crucially depend on the level of international oil prices in the next decade. Significant uncertainties remain regarding the feasibility of the initiatives and their potential fiscal costs, including from contingent liabilities, could be very large. Given the lead time required for such major investments, work should start now on: (i) conducting comprehensive cost-benefits analysis of these projects; (ii) addressing the challenges arising from the taxation of natural resources; and (iii) designing a fiscal framework to anchor fiscal policies if revenue from these energy projects materializes.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses promotion of economic transformation in Nigeria. Nigeria’s long-term potential is keyed on promoting economic transformation. This implies taking stock of initial conditions, assessing long-term financing capacity, and evaluating the policies and reforms to be implemented to meet the long term vision. The recent fall in prices has highlighted the challenging but compelling need to address remaining development challenges. This paper discusses some of these development imperatives including current regional disparities and ongoing policy initiatives, capacity to finance infrastructure needs, promoting domestic saving through developing financial inclusion, and the opportunity cost of quasi-fiscal activities.
International Monetary Fund
Trade was also initially undermined by a severe recession. Kazakhstan is facing increased challenges from higher global commodity prices. Against this background, an encompassing policy response is needed to control inflation and mitigate the scope for second-round price effects. The increase of trade openness in the 2000s coincided with Kazakhstan becoming a major oil producer and exporter. A number of issues still need to be resolved to achieve free trade of goods and services within the borders of the union.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Congo analyzes the challenges of sustainable growth in the Republic of Congo. The paper highlights that it is paramount for the authorities to avoid repeating the experience of the 1980s, particularly in light of the projected decline in oil production over the next decade. It proposes a macroeconomic policy strategy that takes advantage of this unique opportunity to foster higher sustainable growth. The paper also provides a summary of various recent assessments of the quality of the Congo's public financial management system.
Mr. Clinton R. Shiells
Under imperfect competition, Russia and Ukraine may choose to deviate from optimal tax considerations which suggest use of a destination-based VAT regime. Oil and gas trade is a major source of Russian tax revenue, which is collected partly through an origin-based VAT on intra-CIS energy trade. The paper shows that Ukraine may try to capture part of the tax revenue if it has monopsony power. It is far from clear whether Ukraine would succeed in shifting the rents through taxation, since this depends on the form of imperfect competition and the curvature of Ukraine's import demand function.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix reviews developments in the energy sector of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago during 1997–99, and assesses the outlook for energy-related industries. The paper highlights that in 1998, the decline of mature fields was exacerbated by the low price of oil experienced during the year, which made exploitation of some fields uneconomic. The paper examines the fiscal sustainability of energy resources. It also analyzes trade liberalization that has been an integral part of Trinidad and Tobago’s efforts to restructure its economy for sustained growth.
International Monetary Fund
This paper provides an analysis of important factors that have affected the Angolan economy in recent years. The paper summarizes political developments since 1992 and provides an overview of developments in each major sector of the economy. The paper surveys the trade regime and reform priorities affecting it, summarizes available information on poverty, and describes issues affecting development of the diamond sector, formerly a mainstay of the Angolan economy. The paper also provides a technical analysis of the authorities’ current monetary rule, and a summary of the tax system.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Guinea during 1990–95. In 1995, expectations arising from the new discoveries of sizable oil reserves and double-digit growth in the non-oil economy—led by the timber industry—dominated economic developments. However, the fiscal position was again expansionary, as the fiscal deficit grew to 5 percent of GDP, exacerbating imbalances and adding to external payments arrears. Total budgetary revenue as a share of GDP fell and noninterest expenditure increased sharply including unclassified spending on the order of 3 percent of GDP.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper reviews the 1975 Annual Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the IMF and the World Bank that were held in Washington, D.C., from September 1–5. The paper highlights that three separate but related themes dominated the discussion at the Annual Meetings. The first was the need to combat recession without aggravating inflation. The second was the immediate needs of developing countries in the present situation. And the third was the urgency of making further progress toward reform of the international monetary system.