We produce a social unrest risk index for 125 countries covering a period of 1996 to 2020. The risk of social unrest is based on the probability of unrest in the following year derived from a machine learning model drawing on over 340 indicators covering a wide range of macro-financial, socioeconomic, development and political variables. The prediction model correctly forecasts unrest in the following year approximately two-thirds of the time. Shapley values indicate that the key drivers of the predictions include high levels of unrest, food price inflation and mobile phone penetration, which accord with previous findings in the literature.
The Financial Action Task Force’s gray list publicly identiﬁes countries with strategic deﬁciencies in their AML/CFT regimes (i.e., in their policies to prevent money laundering and the ﬁnancing of terrorism). How much gray-listing aﬀects a country’s capital ﬂows is of interest to policy makers, investors, and the Fund. This paper estimates the magnitude of the eﬀect using an inferential machine learning technique. It ﬁnds that gray-listing results in a large and statistically signiﬁcant reduction in capital inﬂows.
Jose Deodoro, Mr. Michael Gorbanyov, Majid Malaika, and Tahsin Saadi Sedik
The era of quantum computing is about to begin, with profound implications for the global economy and the financial system. Rapid development of quantum computing brings both benefits and risks. Quantum computers can revolutionize industries and fields that require significant computing power, including modeling financial markets, designing new effective medicines and vaccines, and empowering artificial intelligence, as well as creating a new and secure way of communication (quantum Internet). But they would also crack many of the current encryption algorithms and threaten financial stability by compromising the security of mobile banking, e-commerce, fintech, digital currencies, and Internet information exchange. While the work on quantum-safe encryption is still in progress, financial institutions should take steps now to prepare for the cryptographic transition, by assessing future and retroactive risks from quantum computers, taking an inventory of their cryptographic algorithms (especially public keys), and building cryptographic agility to improve the overall cybersecurity resilience.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Estonia's economic growth has slowed following the rebound from the deep recession in 2009. Although Estonia's economic and institutional fundamentals are among the strongest in the region, the economy is expected to expand by only a modest 1.6 percent in 2015. Growth is primarily driven by private consumption, which benefits from strong wage growth as labor market slack diminishes for demographic reasons. The economy should gather speed going forward. Growth is projected at 2.5 percent for 2016 and should average about 3 percent over the next few years.
Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) are prepared by the member country in broad consultation with stakeholders and development partners. Despite strong economic performance in recent years compared with Sub-Saharan African and WAEMU countries, Mali’s average annual growth rate of 4.6 percent is below the target of 7 percent provided in the PRSP. At end-2009, the situation in the banking and financial system was characterized by an increase in the money supply, an increase in net foreign assets, an increase in credit to the economy, and a decline in credit to the government.
The staff report for the 2010 Article IV Consultation underlies a thorough and objective view of the macroeconomic situation in Luxembourg and the challenges the economy is facing. The country’s enviable position of public finances at the onset of the crisis provided the space to accommodate fiscal support to the economy, enhance social transfers, and protect household income. Executive Directors recommended a sharper focus on liquidity and credit risks arising from banks’ sizable and concentrated exposures to their foreign parent groups.