Mr. John C Bluedorn, Rupa Duttagupta, Mr. Jaime Guajardo, and Miss Nkunde Mwase
Growth takeoffs in developing economies have rebounded in the past two decades. Although recent takeoffs have lasted longer than takeoffs before the 1990s, a key question is whether they could unravel like some did in the past. This paper finds that recent takeoffs are associated with stronger economic conditions, such as lower post-takeoff debt and inflation levels; more competitive real exchange rates; and better structural reforms and institutions. The chances of starting a takeoff in the 2000s was triple that before the 1990s, with domestic conditions accounting for most of the increase. The findings suggest that if today’s dynamic developing economies sustain their improved policies; they are more likely to stay on course compared to many of their predecessors.
This paper examines Mozambique’s First Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). Mozambique’s performance in 2004 relative to the main macroeconomic objectives of the PRGF-supported program was satisfactory. The fiscal performance through September 2004 was adversely affected by a significant revenue shortfall. The program for 2005 envisages slower growth of 7.3 percent and a further decline in inflation to 8.5 percent by year-end. The program includes additional measures to improve liquidity sterilization, including through the introduction of foreign exchange auctions by end-February 2005.
This Selected Issues paper highlights that cautious monetary and fiscal polices of South Africa during 1997 resulted in a return of financial investor confidence and capital inflows during 1997 and through April 1998. These policies helped the South African economy emerge successfully from the exchange market pressures of 1996 and weather the contagion from the East Asian crisis in the second half of 1997. Throughout 1997 and up until May 1998, inflation and market interest rates fell considerably, net international reserves increased, and the net open forward position of the Reserve Bank was reduced sharply.
Mr. F. Rozwadowski, Mr. Siddharth Tiwari, Mr. David Robinson, and Ms. Susan M Schadler
This paper evaluates progress made under ESAF-supported programs in attaining external viability, restoring economic growth, and implementing structural reforms. Performance is evaluated for 19 countries that entered ESAF arrangements by mid-1992, against the background of their initial conditions, external environment, and implementation of structural and macroeconomic policies.
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
The speeches made by officials attending the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are published in this volume, along with the press communiqués issued by the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Development Committee at the conclusion of the meetings.