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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Republic of Armenia’s 2021 Article IV Consultation, Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause. Armenia has commenced a robust recovery from the deep 2020 recession, benefiting from strong policies and the lifting of the political uncertainty after the elections in June. A gradual but uneven improvement in the pandemic situation, pent-up demand, and the strengthening of public and private investment are expected to drive 2022 growth. Robust growth is expected over the medium term. Discussions focused on macroeconomic and structural policies to safeguard the recovery, ensure macro and fiscal sustainability, and to rebalance Armenia’s economy toward investment and tradeable with the aim of fostering higher and more growth that is inclusive. Program implementation is broadly on track despite some delays. While the announcement of the June 2021 snap elections delayed the discussions on the fourth review, the authorities have continued to implement their IMF-supported program.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Tajikistan is the poorest of the eight Central Asian and Caucasus countries. Economic growth has been high and funded by inward remittances, but poverty remains significant. Macroeconomic policies were generally prudent before the external shocks (lower oil and commodity prices and weaker growth in trading partners) in 2015-16, but slow progress in structural reforms constrained diversification and employment generation. External shocks (through lower remittances and currency depreciation) and an inadequate policy response weakened the external position, exposed major weaknesses in the banking system, and contributed to a rise in public debt. Program discussions held in 2016 were not concluded. While the authorities launched a bank recapitalization plan in December 2016 to maintain depositor confidence and financial stability, additional banking sector reforms are needed.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic over the past year has been well-managed by the authorities. Timely and prudent fiscal and monetary easing shielded the economy from the full brunt of the crisis, while alleviating the health and social impact of the shock. Sound economic policies helped deliver macroeconomic stabilization, safeguard debt sustainability, and preserve investor confidence. While growth is expected to rebound in FY2021/22, the outlook is still clouded by uncertainty related to the pandemic and the pace of vaccinations. High public debt and large gross financing needs leave Egypt vulnerable to external shocks or changes in financial market conditions for EMs. Near-term fiscal and monetary policies should thus continue to support the recovery without accumulating undue imbalances.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The pandemic aggravated Tunisia’s long-standing vulnerabilities stemming from persistent fiscal and external imbalances, rising debt, and contingent liabilities from inefficient state-owned enterprises. The crisis is expected to induce the largest contraction in real GDP since independence. The authorities’ targeted response together with higher outlays on wages widened the fiscal deficit. A second Covid-19 wave is underway. The authorities are securing 500,000 doses to start a first campaign of vaccinations in February and are aiming to secure more doses to vaccinate half of the population starting in April–May. Staff expects GDP growth to rebound modestly in 2021, but it could take years before activity returns to pre-crisis levels, especially if large imbalances were not addressed and key reforms delayed. Downside risks dominate and recent protests highlight the level of social tensions, aggravated by Covid-19 restrictions, and particularly among the youth.
Natalija Novta and Evgenia Pugacheva
Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines in official trade, with exports (imports) estimated to be 58 (34) percent lower ten years after conflict onset. The onset of conflict often also induces significant refugee outflows to neighboring non-advanced countries in the short run, and relatively small but very persistent refugee outflows to advanced countries over the long run. Finally, we stress that conflict should be defined in terms of the number of people killed relative to the total population. The traditional definition of conflict—based on the absolute number of deaths—skews the sample toward low-intensity conflicts in large countries, thereby understating the negative effects of conflict from a macroeconomic perspective.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that non-oil growth in Kuwait has picked up modestly over the past two years, and inflation has moderated. After coming to a standstill in 2015, real non-hydrocarbon growth has recovered and is set to reach 2.5 percent in 2018, driven by improved confidence. Notwithstanding the impact of higher energy and water prices, inflation is on track to reach a multiyear low of 1.75 percent in 2017, owing to a decline in housing rents and favorable food price developments. The government’s underlying fiscal position has improved on the back of spending restraint, but financing needs have remained large.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Abstract

The 2013 Annual Report of the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics (Committee) provides an overview of recent trends and discrepancies in global balance of payments statistics, and summarizes the Committee’s work program during 2013 andthe issues the Committee plans to address in the coming year.

International Monetary Fund
This Data Module of the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) provides an assessment of Azerbaijan’s macroeconomic statistics against the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF), July 2003. The assessment reveals that Azerbaijan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) meets Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) specifications for coverage, periodicity, and timeliness. The CPI has good data sources for both weights and prices, based on well-designed household and retail establishment surveys.
International Monetary Fund
Key Messages • The Iraq Subaccount is a good example of donor coordination as expressed in the Paris Declaration. • Overall, the TAs funded from the Iraq TA Subaccount were successful, relevant, efficient and effective. • Ensuring long-term sustainability requires maintaining an adequate the level of TA activity in the future. • There were instances where more pro-active donor coordination was needed to build synergies to achieve development results. • While the offsite modality was fairly effective and cost efficient and delivered value for money, the limits of this model will be stretched as IMF moves from policy and operational advice and training to greater emphasis on supporting the implementation of policies and procedures. • The Fund’s internal monitoring needs to be strengthened, particularly the TA Information Management System. Reforms in this area are on track, supported by Fund management, and improvements are expected by 1 May 2008. • The Fund’s TA evaluation framework needs to be strengthened by instituting a system of self assessments of all completed TAs and developing guidelines for the ex-post evaluation of TAs. Work in these areas is planned. • The Fund delivered slightly more internally funded TA to Iraq than originally planned.