Browse

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 23 items for :

  • International Financial Markets x
Clear All
Mr. Marcos d Chamon, Mr. David J Hofman, Mr. Nicolas E Magud, and Alejandro M. Werner

Abstract

Foreign exchange intervention is widely used as a policy tool, particularly in emerging markets, but many facets of this tool remain limited, especially in the context of flexible exchange rate regimes. The Latin American experience can be informative because some of its largest countries adopted floating exchange rate regimes and inflation targeting while continuing to intervene in foreign exchange markets. This edited volume reviews detailed accounts from several Latin American countries’ central banks, and it provides insight into how and with what aim many interventions were decided and implemented. This book documents the effectiveness of intervention and pays special attention to the role of foreign exchange intervention policy within inflation-targeting monetary frameworks. The main lesson from Latin America’s foreign exchange interventions, in the context of inflation targeting, is that the region has had a considerable degree of success. Transparency and a clear communication policy have been key. For economies that are not highly dollarized, rules-based intervention helped contain financial instability and build international reserves while preserving inflation targets. The Latin American experience can help other countries in the design and implementation of their policies.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Growth moderated to below trend in 2013-15. In 2015, the output gap widened notwithstanding the modest pick-up in growth to 3¾ percent. GDP is expected to return to potential over the medium-term. Inflation dove into negative territory following the sharp decline in imported oil prices, but is projected to return to the 2- 4 percent target range by end-2016. The exchange rate (XR) remained stable despite the removal of the band, and reserve accumulation resumed strongly. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, notably from large fiscal deficits and high dollarization.

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

This is the 66th issue of the AREAER, which provides comprehensive descriptions of the foreign exchange arrangements, exchange and trade systems, and capital controls of all IMF member countries. It describes each country’s market operations, international trade policies, controls on capital transactions, and financial sector measures. AREAERs from 1988 are available on IMF eLibrary, and cumulative data from each annual report dating back to 1999 are available in a single online database, AREAER Online (see below). The 2015 AREAER includes a print version of the Overview and key summary tables and a CD that includes 191 individual country chapters.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines several real sector issues, including estimates of potential output, the effect of Intel’s withdrawal on gross domestic product (GDP), labor market and inequality and electricity prices in Costa Rica. The production function approach shows that the main drivers of fluctuations in GDP growth are total factor productivity (TFP) and labor supply. These results on TFP, however, should be interpreted with caution. The TFP measure is a residual—the difference between output growth and the growth in the quantity (and quality) of inputs. Estimates suggest that potential GDP growth is about 4.3 percent, the output gap is broadly closed, and Intel’s withdrawal will lower real GDP growth in about 1/2 percentage point. Significant wage premia are identified across public versus private sectors and some evidence of intergenerational inequality is also presented. Electricity tariffs are found to be regionally competitive albeit with inefficiencies in their determination.
International Monetary Fund

This paper discusses the request from Costa Rica for a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The program seeks to enable an orderly adjustment of the Costa Rican economy to an adverse external environment, while mitigating its adverse effects on growth and household incomes. To strengthen the external position, the authorities have tightened monetary conditions and increased exchange rate flexibility. Fiscal policy will be geared toward mitigating the impact of the adjustment on domestic activity and the most vulnerable population. IMF financial support is intended to bolster investor confidence in the authorities’ policy framework.

Selim Elekdag, Mr. Ayhan Kose, and Mr. Roberto Cardarelli
This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of, and policy responses to surges in private capital inflows across a large group of emerging and advanced economies. In particular, we identify 109 episodes of large net private capital inflows to 52 countries over 1987-2007. Episodes of large capital inflows are often associated with real exchange rate appreciations and deteriorating current account balances. More importantly, such episodes tend to be accompanied by an acceleration of GDP growth, but afterwards growth has often dropped significantly. A comprehensive assessment of various policy responses to the large inflow episodes leads to three major conclusions. First, keeping public expenditure growth steady during episodes can help limit real currency appreciation and foster better growth outcomes in their aftermath. Second, resisting nominal exchange rate appreciation through sterilized intervention is likely to be ineffective when the influx of capital is persistent. Third, tightening capital controls has not in general been associated with better outcomes.
Gregorio Impavido
This paper analyzes the performance of the Bulgarian private defined contribution pensions in the second and third pillars of the pension system.
International Monetary Fund

Despite the oil price shock, growth has been high. Discussions focused on the policies needed to reduce Costa Rica’s vulnerabilities, enhance growth, and reduce poverty in a lasting way. Passage of a substantial tax reform is essential. To bring inflation down to low single digits, the authorities plan to recapitalize the central bank and move gradually to a more flexible exchange rate regime. This Article IV Consultation provides an important opportunity to take stock of Costa Rica’s achievements and the challenges ahead.

International Monetary Fund

Despite the oil price shock, growth has been high. Discussions focused on the policies needed to reduce Costa Rica’s vulnerabilities, enhance growth, and reduce poverty in a lasting way. Passage of a substantial tax reform is essential. To bring inflation down to low single digits, the authorities plan to recapitalize the central bank and move gradually to a more flexible exchange rate regime. This Article IV Consultation provides an important opportunity to take stock of Costa Rica’s achievements and the challenges ahead.

Mr. Paolo Mauro and Yishay Yafeh
This paper analyzes the Corporation of Foreign Bondholders (CFB), an association of British investors holding bonds issued by foreign governments. The CFB played a key role during the heyday of international bond finance, 1870-1913, and in the aftermath of the defaults of the 1930s. It fostered coordination among creditors, especially in cases of default, arranging successfully for many important debt restructurings, though failing persistently in a few cases. While a revamped creditor association might once again help facilitate creditor coordination, the relative appeal of defection over coordination is greater today than it was in the past. The CFB may have had an easier time than any comparable body would have today.