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Mr. Marco Arena, Tingyun Chen, Mr. Seung M Choi, Ms. Nan Geng, Cheikh A. Gueye, Mr. Tonny Lybek, Mr. Evan Papageorgiou, and Yuanyan Sophia Zhang
Macroprudential policy in Europe aligns with the objective of limiting systemic risk, namely the risk of widespread disruption to the provision of financial services that is caused by an impairment of all or parts of the financial system and that can cause serious negative consequences for the real economy.
Mr. Tobias Adrian, Mr. James Morsink, and Miss Liliana B Schumacher
This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.
Chengyu Huang, Sean Simpson, Daria Ulybina, and Agustin Roitman
We construct sentiment indices for 20 countries from 1980 to 2019. Relying on computational text analysis, we capture specific language like “fear”, “risk”, “hedging”, “opinion”, and, “crisis”, as well as “positive” and “negative” sentiments, in news articles from the Financial Times. We assess the performance of our sentiment indices as “news-based” early warning indicators (EWIs) for financial crises. We find that sentiment indices spike and/or trend up ahead of financial crises.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper summarizes Nordea’s operations and business model; the macroeconomic and prudential implications of the move; and policy responses taken so far. The IMF staff’s assessment is that banking supervision in the euro area has improved significantly following the creation of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, which should mitigate potential risks from Nordea’s move; meanwhile, the Nordic authorities have done much, in conjunction with the European Central Bank, to ensure that potential gaps and fragmentation across national jurisdictions are avoided. The resolution framework is designed to prevent taxpayers having to bail out banks, but is new, and work on building the crisis preparedness of euro area banks is still under way. The banking union is not yet complete, details of the backstop for the Single Resolution Fund need to be finalized and a common euro area deposit insurance should be made fully operational. At the same time, Nordea is also operating in non-euro area member states—maintaining cooperation between euro area and noneuro area institutions remains important.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note evaluates banking regulation and supervision in Sweden. The Finansinspektionen (Financial Supervisory Authority, FI) has made considerable progress developing supervisory approaches and techniques, particularly structured risk assessments for the four large banking groups. Concerns raised in the 2011 Financial Stability Assessment Program regarding insufficient granularity and frequency of reporting by supervised institutions has been addressed, starting in the third quarter of 2014. The FI has also implemented a new system for management of banking and insurance supervisory data. The IMF staff expressed satisfaction with the system’s functionality and flexibility to produce custom reports. The work to put in place a standardized set of internal screening and analytical reports, however, is ongoing.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Sweden in the areas of supervision and oversight of financial market infrastructures (FMIs). FMIs in Sweden are subject to appropriate and effective supervision and oversight by the Finansinspektionen (Financial Supervisory Authority, FI) and Sveriges Riksbank (Riksbank). The scope, basis, and objectives of each authority’s supervision and oversight are clearly defined and disclosed. There is evidence that the authorities’ supervision and oversight have effectively improved risk management practices at Swedish FMIs. There is also effective cooperation between the FI and Riksbank in the supervision and oversight of FMIs. The risk management at Nasdaq Clearing appears to be sound.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note explains the stress testing approach of the 2016 Financial Sector Assessment Program in assessment of risk in the Swedish financial sector and provides the results of the tests. Stress tests covered three major segments of the domestic financial sector. The resilience of the Swedish banking system was tested against solvency, liquidity, and contagion risks. The solvency stress test suggests that banks would be resilient to severe economic distress. Bank liquidity stress tests suggest that banks could withstand severe funding and market liquidity shocks, but there are pockets of vulnerability. The overall stress testing exercise suggests that there is room for improvement in the individual components of authorities’ stress testing framework.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Sweden in the areas of the systemic risk oversight framework and management. To promote accountability, the law should clarify the allocation of macroprudential powers between the government and the Finansinspektionen (Financial Supervisory Authority, FI) and grant the FI a clear legal mandate for macroprudential policy, with full operational independence. The Financial Stability Council, or a similar body—excluding the Ministry of Finance—should have the legal authority to issue recommendations, preferably with a “comply or explain” approach. The law should also ensure that the Sveriges Riksbank’s expertise in financial stability analysis finds a clear institutional role in the oversight of systemic risk.
Rima Turk-Ariss
Concerns about excessive variability in bank risk weights have prompted their review by regulators. This paper provides prima facie evidence on the extent of risk weight heterogeneity across broad asset classes and by country of counterparty for major banks in the European Union using internal models. It also finds that corporate risk weights are sensitive to the riskiness of an average representative firm, but not to a market indicator of a firm’s probablity of default. Under plausible yet severe hypothetical scenarios for harmonized risk weights, counterfactual capital ratios would decline significantly for some banks, but they would not experience a shortfall relative to Basel III’s minimum requirements. This, however, does not preclude falling short of meeting additional national supervisory capital requirements.