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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Algeria continues to face important challenges posed by the fall in oil prices four years ago. Despite a sizeable fiscal consolidation in 2017, the fiscal and current account deficits remain large. Real GDP growth slowed sharply, mainly driven by a contraction in hydrocarbon production, although growth in the nonhydrocarbon sector was stable. Unemployment increased to 11.7 percent in September 2017 from 10.5 in September 2016 and remains particularly high among the youth and women. Average inflation declined from 6.4 percent in 2016 to 5.6 percent owing to slowing inflation for manufactured goods and services, and stood at 3.4 percent year-over-year in April 2018.
Philip Daniel, Alan Krupnick, Ms. Thornton Matheson, Peter Mullins, Ian Parry, and Artur Swistak
This paper suggests that the environmental and commercial features of shale gas extraction do not warrant a significantly different fiscal regime than recommended for conventional gas. Fiscal policies may have a role in addressing some environmental risks (e.g., greenhouse gases, scarce water, local air pollution) though in some cases their net benefits may be modest. Simulation analyses suggest, moreover, that special fiscal regimes are generally less important than other factors in determining shale gas investments (hence there appears little need for them), yet they forego significant revenues.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Algeria’s continued challenges posed by lower oil prices. Overall economic activity was resilient, but growth in the nonhydrocarbon sector slowed to 2.9 percent in 2016, partly under the effects of spending cuts. Inflation increased from 4.8 percent in 2015 to 6.4 percent in 2016 and stood at 7.7 percent year over year in February 2017. Unemployment was 10.5 percent in September 2016 and remains particularly high among youth (26.7 percent) and women (20.0 percent). Despite fiscal consolidation in 2016, the fiscal and current account deficits remained large, and public debt increased, reflecting in part the assumption of government-guaranteed debt. International reserves, while still ample, have declined rapidly.
Mr. Martin Sommer, Mr. Allan G Auclair, Mr. Armand Fouejieu, Ms. Inutu Lukonga, Mr. Saad N Quayyum, Amir Sadeghi, Mr. Gazi H Shbaikat, Mr. Andrew J Tiffin, and Mr. Bruno Versailles
This paper discusses the challenges posed by low oil prices in the MENA and CCA regions, the adjustment policies adopted so far, and remaining adjustment needs and future risks.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses the recent economic developments, outlook, risks, and policies required to foster sustainable economic growth of Algeria. Growth was sustained in 2015 while inflation picked up. The budget deficit reached a record high in 2015 because of the collapse in hydrocarbon revenues and a significant fiscal expansion. Beyond 2016, the outlook hinges on the strength of the policy response to the oil price shock. The collapse in oil prices points to the urgent need to reshape Algeria’s growth model. Algeria needs to undertake ambitious and sustained consolidation combined with a critical mass of structural reforms to diversify its economy and promote private sector-led growth and job creation.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper develops a structural macroeconomic model for Algeria that can help inform the discussion of the policy choices faced by the authorities. The model captures the core dynamics of Algeria’s macro-economy and provides an organizing framework for forecasting and policy analysis that can facilitate an assessment of the optimal policy responses to oil shocks and the implications for macroeconomic stability. This paper also examines Algeria’s main subsidies and proposes reform strategies, drawing on cross-country experiences, and discusses the channels through which a prolonged period of low oil prices may affect the banking sector, together with the policies needed to mitigate emerging financial stability risks.
International Monetary Fund
countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Informational Annex highlights that data provision in Algeria has some shortcomings, but is broadly adequate for surveillance. Data are published with a delay of less than one month. Key shortcomings in government finance statistics include insufficient institutional coverage, classification problems, long lags for production of statistics, and lack of reconciliation of financing with the monetary accounts. Key factors behind these weaknesses include the lack of financial resources allocated to the compilation of statistics, insufficient interagency coordination, and concern about accuracy that give rise to reluctance to publish provisional data. Monetary statistics compiled by the authorities are largely in line with the methodology in the 2000 Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and its companion 2008Compilation Guide.