Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, Ms. Darlena Tartari Schwegler, and Carlos Caceres
This paper analyses inflation dynamics in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) using a constructed dataset for country-specific commodity price indices and panel cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Imported commodity price shocks are significant in explaining inflation in the region. Governments are another driving force of inflation dynamics mainly through controlled prices and the role of capital expenditure in domestic activity. In most CEMAC countries, the largest effect of global food and fuel prices occurs after four or five quarters in noncore inflation and then decays substantially over time. Second-round effects are significant only in Cameroon and to a lesser extent in the Republic of Congo.
Overall, the program's macroeconomic targets have been broadly met. The program embodies a renewed emphasis on the non-oil revenue mobilization effort and continuation of a prudent expenditure stance. Reversing the deterioration of the financial operations of the public companies and the utilities is critical. The key objective is strengthening fiscal transparency. Executive Directors welcome the government’s commitment to move forward with the implementation of structural reforms. Close and sustained monitoring, and enhanced coordination within the government, will be critical to the successful implementation of the program.