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Mr. Fabien Gonguet and Klaus-Peter Hellwig
We analyze the US public sector balance sheet and project it forward under the assumption that current policies remain in place. We first document the history of the balance sheet and its components since World War II, with a detailed account of its evolution during and after the global financial crisis. While, based on assets and liabilities alone, public sector net worth is negative, additional challenges arise from commitments to future spending implied by current legislation and demographic trends. To quantify the risks to the balance sheet, we then apply the macroeconomic scenarios from the Federal Reserve’s bank stress test to the public sector balance sheet.
Venkat Josyula

Abstract

This third edition of the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Guide has been prepared to assist economies that participate or are preparing to participate in the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS). It builds on and updates the second edition of the CPIS Guide (2002) to reflect the adoption of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition (BPM6) as the standard framework for compiling cross-border position statistics.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real GDP of El Salvador grew above potential, at 2.3 percent in 2017, supported by lower oil prices, continued United States (U.S.) recovery, and a surge in remittances. However, El Salvador’s growth continues to lag regional peers. Inflation remained low at 1 percent, anchored by dollarization. In 2018–19, growth is expected to remain above potential at 2.3 percent, reflecting the temporary acceleration of the U.S. growth from the recent U.S. tax reform and higher grant-financed investment. The fiscal deficit would further fall to 2.2 percent of GDP in 2018, as savings from the pension reform kick in, but would rise to 2.7 percent of GDP in 2019.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses technical advice and recommendations given by the IMF mission to the authorities of Uganda regarding development of financial transactions and balance sheets. The IMF mission suggested developing the financial transactions and balance sheets based on a holistic approach following the integrated sectoral accounts framework of the 2008 System of National Accounts. This approach will highlight the interconnection of the four main sectors of the Ugandan economy. The IMF mission judged that development of experimental financial transactions and sector balance sheets is possible in the near future. However, the development of final accounts that are consistent with nonfinancial accounts would take two to three more years and would depend on acquisition of additional source data.
Mr. Serkan Arslanalp and Mr. Dennis P Botman
Portfolio rebalancing is a key transmission channel of quantitative easing in Japan. We construct a realistic rebalancing scenario, which suggests that the BoJ may need to taper its JGB purchases in 2017 or 2018, given collateral needs of banks, asset-liability management constraints of insurers, and announced asset allocation targets of major pension funds. Nonetheless, the BoJ could deliver continued monetary stimulus by extending the maturity of its JGB purchases or by scaling up private asset purchases. We quantify the impact of rebalancing on capital outflows and discuss JGB market signals that can be indicative of limits being within reach.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is strongly connected to Europe through trade and financial channels, continues to pay a high price for the tough conditions in the area. The paper discuss that, following low demand in its trading partners, exports slumped in 2012 by 7.5 percent, dragging the economy to an export-led recession that resulted in a contraction of economic activity by 0.7 percent. The share of government spending in GDP fell by almost a percentage point, offsetting completely the automatic stabilizers.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
In this paper, the structure of Colombia’s financial sector is analyzed and various risks of the financial sector are studied. Supervision of the financial system can be performed by supervisory architecture, banking supervision, various securities, and insurance policies. Systemic liquidity provision, deposit insurance, and bank resolution form the financial safety net. Finally, financial stability and macroprudential framework have been discussed. Macroprudential tools and policies are also explained in detail.