The nominal bond yields for advanced economies rose sharply during the first quarter of the year. This note analyzes the drivers of this increase across the jurisdictions and tenors of the yield curve. A key investor focus, in particular, has been the rise in the nominal bond yields in the United States, which has had notable global financial stability spillovers. The analysis indicates that the rise in inflation expectations is the primary driver of the rise in US nominal bond yields over the near term, whereas, the rise in real yields has been the major contributor to the rise in longer-term yields. The change in term premiums has also played a key role in driving both the longer-term inflation breakeven and real yields. Considering other major advanced economies, while inflation expectations have risen across the board in the near term, change in real yields appear more pertinent a driver for shifts in longer-term yields.
The large recession that followed the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 triggered unprecedented
monetary policy easing around the world. Most central banks in advanced economies deployed
new instruments to affect credit conditions and to provide liquidity at a large scale after shortterm
policy rates reached their effective lower bound. In this paper, we study if this new set of
tools, commonly labeled as unconventional monetary policies (UMP), should still be used when
economic conditions and interest rates normalize. In particular, we study the optimality of asset
purchase programs by using an estimated non-linear DSGE model with a banking sector and
long-term private and public debt for the United States. We find that the benefits of using such
UMP in normal times are substantial, equivalent to 1.45 percent of consumption. However, the
benefits from using UMP are shock-dependent and mostly arise when the economy is hit by
financial shocks. When more traditional business cycle shocks (such as supply and demand
shocks) hit the economy, the benefits of using UMP are negligible or zero.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the United States is now in its seventh consecutive year of expansion. The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9 percent, and household net worth is close to precrisis peaks. Nonetheless, the economy has gone through a temporary growth dip in the last two quarters. Lower oil prices led to a further contraction in energy sector investment, and a strong dollar and weak global demand have weighed on net exports. With activity indicators for the second quarter of 2016 rebounding, the economy is expected to grow at 2.2 percent and 2.5 percent in 2016 and 2017, which is above potential.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
GDP growth is projected to pickup up slightly to 3.0 percent in 2016 and 3.2 percent in 2017, below most other ASEAN economies and Thailand's own historical record. Weak domestic and external demand, coupled with volatile global financial conditions, will remain headwinds, while structural bottlenecks weigh on potential growth. Inflation is expected to remain low in the foreseeable future.
Jacopo Cimadomo, Peter Claeys, and Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future
government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the
United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents
consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance—and other economic
fundamentals—to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a
benchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of the
fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests that
credible fiscal plans affect market experts’ expectations and reduce the pressure on
sovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play a
more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads.