International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents an overview of the macroeconomic condition of Tunisia. Tunisia has managed to preserve macroeconomic stability and initiate fiscal and banking reforms in a context marked by a prolonged political transition, spillovers from the crisis in Libya, and numerous exogenous shocks, including terror attacks. However, important vulnerabilities remain: economic activity is weak, employment is low, social tensions linger, spending composition has deteriorated, and external imbalances are high. To tackle these issues, Tunisia formulated a five-year (2016–20) economic vision in 2015, which is being developed into a detailed plan. The vision aims at promoting stronger and more inclusive growth in Tunisia.
This Selected Issues paper attempts to uncover the long-term determinants of the demand for foreign exchange reserves in Tunisia. It assesses the adequacy of current and projected reserves holdings in light of the country’s policy choices. The paper describes recent trends in foreign exchange reserves in Tunisia. Econometric evidence on the determinants of the demand for foreign reserves in Tunisia is presented. The results are used to forecast the desired level of reserves given Tunisia’s medium-term macroeconomic framework and to draw policy implications.