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Mr. Philippe Beaugrand
This paper reviews Zaïre’s experience with hyperinflation during 1990-96 and develops an illustrative model based on a money demand function that includes government revenue as a determinant. Government revenue is itself subject to the “Tanzi effect,” in which inflation tends to lower revenue collections. The model is estimated over the 1990-96 period, and simulations are also presented. The paper concludes with a number of observations and policy recommendations for stopping hyperinflation in Zaïre.
Mr. Paul R Masson, Marcel Cassard, and Mr. Timothy D. Lane
Stage 2 of monetary union in the Europe is to involve greater monetary cooperation; the paper examines the case for using the M3 money supply aggregated across “core ERM” countries- -those with low inflation and absence of realignments- -as a vehicle for that cooperation. First, the existence of a satisfactory long-run money demand relationship and short-run dynamic equation is verified. The resulting demand equations have at least as satisfactory econometric properties as those for France and Germany separately. Second, the predictive power of the core-ERM aggregate relative to French and German inflation is examined; it is shown that the aggregate helps to predict German inflation, over and above the predictive power of German M3. Thus, core-ERM M3 has value as an indicator for the anchor country in hitting its own domestic objective, quite separate from any concern about economic developments in neighboring countries.