GREEN BONDS, LAUNCHED by the World Bank and the European Investment Bank more than a decade ago, blazed a trail for investments that could eventually reach into trillions of dollars in climate-related projects, including renewable energy, energy efficiency, and ecosystem protection and restoration.
This paper mines the experience of capital markets during the 19th century to propose an alternative way of interpreting international default episodes. The standard view is that defaulting on sovereign debt entails exclusion from capital markets. Yet we have observed multiple instances of sovereign debt default in which the reaction of lenders was not the one predicted by the punishment story: in some cases, lending ceased for long periods, but in others it was not interrupted. This paper claims that the reaction of lenders after default stems from the additional knowledge about the borrower that lenders acquire during these episodes. The lending relationship is modeled in a costly state-verification environment in which governments have private information about their investment projects (good or bad). It is shown that, in the event of default, it is worthwhile for lenders to find out more about the type of project, and then interrupt lending only if the project is believed to be a bad one.
Heightened expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. economy; a downgrading of the long-run earnings potential of the technology, media, and telecom sector; and a deterioration in U.S. credit markets all took their toll on emerging bond and equity markets in the last quarter of 2000. In addition to analyzing the consequences of these developments, the latest issue of Emerging Market Financing, which is published quarterly and forms part of the IMF’s surveillance over international capital markets, also discusses the outlook for emerging market financing this year and the potential risks, notably those that would be engendered if the U.S. economy were to slow sharply. The report also examines episodes of contagion and periods of drought in emerging bond markets—two salient features of emerging markets financing.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
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