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Adam Leive
This paper exploits the staggered adoption of major concurrent health reforms in countries in Europe and Central Asia after 1990 to estimate their impact on public health expenditure, utilization, and avoidable deaths. While the health systems all derived from the same paradigm under central planning, they have since introduced changes to policies regarding cost-sharing, provider payment, financing, and the rationalization of hospital infrastructure. Social health insurance is predicted to increase this share, although the leads of both social health insurance and primary care fee-for-service suggest endogeneity may be an issue with the outpatient share regressions. Provider payment reforms produce the largest impact on spending, with fee-for-service increasing spending and patient-based payment reducing it. The impact on avoidable deaths is generally negligible, but there is some evidence of improvements due to fee-for-service. Considering the corresponding relative reduction in inpatient admissions and the incentives fee-for-service provides to deliver additional services, perhaps there is an overprovision of services in the primary care setting and an underutilization of more specialized hospital services.
International Monetary Fund
The first analysis focuses on external stability, an important issue in view of Croatia’s external imbalances and the requirements of the IMF’s 2007 Decision on Bilateral Surveillance. The paper shows that the real exchange rate is broadly in line with economic fundamentals and that external debt dynamics are sustainable as long as macroeconomic policies remain strong. The second analysis finds significant inefficiencies in Croatia’s social spending. It also discusses several reform measures to reduce inefficiencies in public spending and generate budgetary savings to reduce the general government deficit.
Ms. Victoria Gunnarsson and Mr. Etibar Jafarov
This paper assesses the relative efficiency of government spending on health care and education in Croatia by using the so-called Data Envelopment Analysis. The analysis finds evidence of significant inefficiencies in Croatia's spending on health care and education, related to inadequate cost recovery, weaknesses in the financing mechanisms and institutional arrangements, weak competition in the provision of these services, and weaknesses in targeting public subsidies on health care and education. These inefficiencies suggest that government spending on health and education could be reduced without undue sacrifices in the quality of these services. The paper identifies ways to do that.
Ms. Victoria Gunnarsson, Sergio Lugaresi, and Marijn Verhoeven
The paper assesses the financial situation of the health sector in the Slovak Republic. It also evaluates the efficiency of health expenditures and service delivery in comparison to the OECD and other new EU member states and suggests avenues for cost recovery and reform. The health sector of the Slovak Republic is plagued by financial problems. To turn around health system finances and achieve larger gains in health outcomes, the efficiency of health spending needs to increase and the mix and quality of real health resources need to be improved. Although Slovak's overall health spending efficiency is on par with that of the OECD, substantial inefficiencies occur in the process of transforming intermediate health inputs into health outcomes. Efficiency may be enhanced by containing the cost of drugs and reducing reliance on hospital care. Also, although cost-effectiveness may be relatively high at present, its sustainability in the future is an issue.
Mr. Todd D. Mattina and Ms. Victoria Gunnarsson
This paper assesses the relative efficiency and flexibility of public spending in Slovenia compared to the advanced and new EU member states. Spending on health care, education, and social protection is relatively high in Slovenia without achieving correspondingly better outcomes. Inefficiencies appear to stem from the financing mechanisms for social services, institutional arrangements, and the weak targeting of social benefits. In addition, the composition of spending appears to be strongly tilted towards nondiscretionary items that reduce the fiscal room for maneuver. Greater flexibility is needed to facilitate the reallocation of relatively inefficient expenditure into higher priorities. In this manner, medium-term expenditure rationalization can focus on reducing inefficient outlays rather than restraining traditionally flexible components of the budget, such as public investment.
International Monetary Fund
This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic performance of Slovenia strengthened in 2006, supported by a recovery in investment and continued growth spillovers from the European Union. Declining real interest rates in the run-up to euro adoption on January 1, 2007 helped sustain credit growth and domestic demand. The strong economy boosted job creation, while unemployment declined and capacity utilization reached record high levels. Growth is projected to slow down slightly in 2007–08, as the investment boom decelerates.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the challenges that the Republic of Slovenia will face in the coming years. It examines the efficiency of the Slovene banking sector in the European Union context. The paper analyzes indicators of bank efficiency by comparing performance indicators for banks in Slovenia, the European Monetary Union, and new member states. It presents results from cross-country econometric estimates of banking sector cost efficiency. The paper also discusses results from estimates of cross-country banking sector contestability, and the determinants of efficiency and contestability.
Robert Sierhej and Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg
Drawing on a dataset suitable for macroeconomic analysis, the paper provides an overview of the magnitudes, purpose and institutional implications of EU-related transfers to and from the new member states. A rough analysis of accounting identities and first-round effects shows that EU funds may have led to a fiscal drag of up to 1 percent of GDP and an additional aggregate demand stimulus of up to 1 percent of GDP during the first years of membership. These effects are likely to increase as additional funding become available under the new financial perspective, pointing to the need to consider policy tradeoffs.
International Monetary Fund
This paper provides a background on the key policy challenges for Slovenia in the euro zone. Then, it assesses the discretionary scope to adjust spending and proposes initial steps to enhance budget flexibility so that fiscal adjustment can be targeted on relatively inefficient spending. This study also discusses the long-term fiscal sustainability position of Slovenia using a generational accounting framework. A simulation of retirement incentives suggests that the pension system will encourage individuals to retire earlier than the statutory full pensionable age. These incentives are stronger for low-income earners.
International Monetary Fund
Slovenia is set to become the first among the new European Union member states to adopt the euro. Executive Directors emphasized the need to implement policies that increase productivity, create an efficient business environment and a flexible labor market, and improve sustainability of public finances in the face of population aging. Labor participation is also relatively low among the older and younger working-age population. To deal with these challenges, the authorities should speed up efforts to raise labor utilization by lowering marginal tax rates, improving the target of social benefits and reducing incentives for early retirement.