A survey of the complex and intertwined set of forces behind the various commodity markets and the interplay between these markets and the global economy. Summarizes a rich set of facts combined with in-depth analyses distillated in a nontechnical manner. Includes discussion of structural trends behind commodities markets, their future implications, and policy implications.
Mark Agerton, Peter Hartley, Kenneth Medlock III, and Ted Temzelides
Technological progress in the exploration and production of oil and gas during the 2000s has led to a boom in upstream investment and has increased the domestic supply of fossil fuels. It is unknown, however, how many jobs this boom has created. We use time-series methods at the national level and dynamic panel methods at the state-level to understand how the increase in exploration and production activity has impacted employment. We find robust statistical support for the hypothesis that changes in drilling for oil and gas as captured by rig-counts do in fact, have an economically meaningful and positive impact on employment. The strongest impact is contemporaneous, though months later in the year also experience statistically and economically meaningful growth. Once dynamic effects are accounted for, we estimate that an additional rig-count results in the creation of 37 jobs immediately and 224 jobs in the long run, though our robustness checks suggest that these multipliers could be bigger.
Mr. Alonso A Segura Vasi, Walter Zarate, Mr. Gonzalo C Pastor Campos, and Mr. Ulrich H Klueh
This paper attempts to offer specific inputs to the debate on local content promotion in the oil industry, using the specific case of São Tomé and Príncipe as point of reference. Our approach emphasizes inter-sectoral linkages and institutional pre-conditions for local content promotion. Based on an Input-Output description of the economy, we quantify the consistency between the prospective oil sector development and the growth of other sectors of the economy. We also assess a number of sectoral policies and "niche" activities within the oil industry that would maximize the local benefits from oil exploration.
Gabon continues to enjoy record high oil prices, buoying both exports and government revenues. The critical medium-term challenge facing Gabon is managing the transition from an economy highly dependent on oil to a diversified economy that harnesses private sector initiative, and makes decisive progress in poverty reduction. The fiscal policy stance requires significant tightening. Raising economic growth and reducing poverty necessitate the acceleration of the structural reform agenda. Fostering transparency is a key ingredient to strengthening governance and accountability in Gabon.
The formulation of fiscal policy in Kiribati faces unusual challenges. Kiribati's revenue base is among the most volatile in the world, and it possesses sizeable financial assets. Drawing on lessons from some other countries who experience high volatility in their revenues, this paper proposes a fiscal policy rule for Kiribati which is nested within a medium-term macroeconomic framework that aims to ensure the sustainable use of Kiribati's financial assets while managing the impact of extreme revenue volatility. It also discusses improvements in the institutional fiscal policy framework that could support such a framework.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper highlights that the current round of trade talks under the auspices of the World Trade Organization aims at better integrating developing countries—especially the small and poor ones—into the global trading system. For that reason, it was named the Doha Development Agenda when it was launched in late 2001. However, more than three years on, little progress has been made. It took a late July 2004 accord outlining “negotiating frameworks” in agriculture and industrial products just to keep the talks afloat.
This Selected Issues paper reviews the recent economic developments, production, prices, and employment of Liberia. It also highlights the fiscal, monetary, and external sector developments, and the failures and credibility in the banking system. It describes the role of timber, rice, petroleum, and cement in the Liberian economy. It also provides the details of the IMF’s projections and estimates on Liberia’s summary of the tax system, central government revenue, and economic classification of central government expenditure, summary of accounts of the central bank of Liberia, and deposit money banks during March 2001-September, and so on.
This paper reviews economic developments in Guinea during 1990–98. Economic developments were dominated by the coming on stream of important oil fields in 1992 and 1996, and the subsequent breakdown in fiscal discipline and transparency. In response to the January 1994 devaluation of the CFA franc, there was also an upturn in the non-oil sector, led by intensification in logging activity that resulted in an unsustainable level of timber output in 1997. Real GDP growth averaged 8.5 percent a year in 1992–95, and rose to 29 percent in 1996.
This Selected Issues reviews economic development in Azerbaijan during 1995–99. The Azerbaijan authorities began to implement a far-reaching economic reform program in 1995. As a result, the serious macroeconomic imbalances, which plagued the economy in the early years of the transition, were largely eliminated. Both 1997 and 1998 were characterized by financial stability and strong real growth: average consumer price inflation over this period was close to zero and real GDP growth averaged 8 percent a year.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.