We find that countries which are able to borrow at spreads that seem low given fundamentals (for example because investors take a bullish view on a country's future), are more likely to develop economic difficulties later on. We obtain this result through a two-stage procedure, where a first regression links sovereign spreads to fundamentals, after which residuals from this regression are deployed in a second stage to assess their impact on future outcomes (real GDP growth and the occurrence of fiscal crises). We confirm the relevance of past sovereign debt mispricing in several out-of-sample exercises, where they reduce the RMSE of real GDP growth forecasts by as much as 15 percent. This provides strong support for theories of sentiment affecting the business cycle. Our findings also suggest that countries shouldn't solely rely on spread levels when determining their fiscal strategy; underlying fundamentals should inform policy as well, since historical relationships between spreads and fundamentals often continue to apply in the medium-to-long run.
Private cross-border financial flows and stocks have grown to account for an increasingly significant part of overall transactions and positions in many African countries. Direct reporting through enterprise surveys has become a key data source to enable them to be measured accurately. The paper describes a multi-year technical assistance project in The Gambia, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, and Nigeria, where annual enterprise surveys are now established. To varying degrees, the survey results have been incorporated into the balance of payments and International Investment Position statistics. The case studies may serve as a useful reference for other countries embarking on efforts to establish direct reporting of cross-border financial flows and stocks.
The Executive Board of the IMF has completed the third review under the three-year Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for the Republic of Mozambique. Mozambique continues to weather the global economic turmoil well. Real GDP growth is projected to remain above 7 percent in 2011, benefiting from good harvests, a robust performance in the services sector, and the coming online of new megaprojects in the natural resource sector. The authorities’ economic program under the PSI will continue to emphasize preserving macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability while promoting economic and social development.
Mozambique continues to show a strong economic performance. The inflation expectations require a tightening of the macroeconomic policy mix. Executive Directors commended the role of government in sustaining economic growth by accelerating the public investment program. Engaging development partners and civil society to make the growth strategy more inclusive and allowing Mozambicans to participate in economic growth and the determination in fighting inflation is welcome. The fuel price policy has contributed to substantial costs to Mozambique’s fiscal and external accounts, and poses future risks.
Mozambique showed considerable resilience to the global crisis. The government responded to the crisis by promptly easing macroeconomic policies. The Policy Support Instrument (PSI) provided an effective and flexible framework to guide policies during the crisis, and program performance has been strong. Donor support was temporarily halted over governance concerns, but has resumed. Mozambique’s economic performance and track record of macroeconomic stability over the last decade and a half have been impressive, making the country a prime example of a mature stabilizer.
This paper discusses key findings of the Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument for Mozambique, and findings of the First Review Under the Exogenous Shocks Facility. The country’s track record of prudent policies has provided ample space for easing macroeconomic policies in 2009. Revenues surpassed expectations in the first semester and the fiscal program was on track at end-September, although the government missed its end-June 2009 assessment/performance criterion on net domestic credit very marginally. The government has reiterated its commitment to its medium-term strategy of prudent macroeconomic policies.
This evaluation of technical assistance (TA) in statistics covers two post-conflict countries, namely, Mozambique and Rwanda during the period 2000–08. The TA, including training, covered the broad spectrum of the Statistics Department’s (STA) program, including collaboration with the East Africa Regional Technical Assistance Center (East AFRITAC), the U. K. Department for International Development (DFID), and the Japanese-funded General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) projects, as well as TA funded directly from the IMF’s budget. The emerging lessons also provide a useful guide to future TA to non-English-speaking countries.
The evaluation is based on missions to each country and relied on responses to questionnaires, desk reviews of available data, and discussions with country authorities, donors, data users, and national officials who participated in IMF courses in statistics.
This paper presents an Update to the Data Module of the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) for Mozambique. Despite the improvements in recent years, limitations in the coverage of most core comprehensive frameworks and indicators recommended in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) still exist, including the absence of a manufacturing or industrial production index and labor market indicators. In addition, data on public and publicly guaranteed external debt are not disseminated with the recommended breakdown. However, most GDDS recommendations regarding periodicity and timeliness have been met.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
L’édition web du Bulletin du FMI est mise à jour plusieurs fois par semaine et contient de nombreux articles sur des questions de politique générale et de politique économique d'actualité. Accédez aux dernières recherches du FMI, lisez des interviews et écoutez des podcasts proposés par les principaux économistes du FMI sur des questions importantes de l'économie mondiale. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición en Internet del Boletín del FMI, que se actualiza varias veces a la semana, contiene numerosos artículos sobre temas de actualidad en el ámbito de las políticas y la economía. Consulte las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche podcasts de los principales economistas del FMI sobre importantes temas relacionados con la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx