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Cristina Batog, Ernesto Crivelli, Ms. Anna Ilyina, Zoltan Jakab, Mr. Jaewoo Lee, Anvar Musayev, Iva Petrova, Mr. Alasdair Scott, Ms. Anna Shabunina, Andreas Tudyka, Xin Cindy Xu, and Ruifeng Zhang
The populations of Central and Eastern European (CESEE) countries—with the exception of Turkey—are expected to decrease significantly over the next 30 years, driven by low or negative net birth rates and outward migration. These changes will have significant implications for growth, living standards and fiscal sustainability.
Hui Jin, La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul, and Baoping Shang
This paper, using Moldova as an example, presents a systematic approach to assess the efficiency and equity of public education spending, identify sources of inefficiencies and inequality, and formulate potential reform options. The analytical framework combines international benchmarking with country-specific analysis—such as microeconomic analysis based on household survey data—and can provide important insights into diagnosing and reforming education systems. The analysis finds significant scope to improve both efficiency and equity of the education sector in Moldova. Potential reform measures include further consolidating the oversized school network, reducing overstaffing, and better targeting government subsidies. The current remuneration policy could also be improved to attract high quality teachers and incentivize performance.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Economic Development Document highlights the Moldova 2020 National Development Strategy focus on producing a social and economic impact on various development priorities. Poverty reduction has progressed significantly during the past eight years: the national poverty rate decreased from 26.4 percent in 2008 to 9.6 percent in 2015. Remittances by emigrants and higher agricultural income, salaries, and social benefits were the major drivers of poverty reduction. The means-tested social assistance program had a significant impact. This social aid has proved to be the most efficient social protection against poverty; however, social support programs that are not means tested are ineffective.
Mr. Serhan Cevik
Using a novel municipality-level panel dataset, this paper investigates the empirical characteristics of vertical fiscal imbalances (VFIs) in Moldova over the period 2005–13. The results show that the extent of variation in VFIs across 898 municipalities can be explained by the level of per capita income, fiscal capacity, and demographic characteristics, as well as the central government’s fiscal behavior that reflects fiscal constraints and policy preferences at the national level. Political affiliation does not appear to be a significant factor, and the results are inconclusive in terms of direction. While some model specifications show larger VFIs when the mayor of a municipality belongs to the same party ruling the central government, other models suggest better coordination and thus lower VFIs. Altogether, these findings underscore the need for well-coordinated reforms to create economies of scale, enhance revenue collection, and improve the composition of spending at the subnational level.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and National Development Strategy (NDS) for the Republic of Moldova. The NDS “Moldova 2020” presents a vision of cohesive long-term sustainable economic development based on a diagnostic study of constraints to economic development. Areas such as health, culture, social protection, and environmental protection are crucial for the country’s sustainable development. The focus of the NDS is to increase the budget coverage of adequate policies in these sectors as a result of accelerated economic development. Such a focus also requires the sustainability of foreign assistance currently provided to the country.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the Poverty Reduction Strategy Annual Evaluation Report 2005 for Moldova. Economic growth and income redistribution policies promoted in the context of Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EGPRS) implementation contributed to higher incomes and improved access of population to social services, which led to higher living standards and poverty reduction in Moldova. During 2002–04, poverty rates decreased by 14.5 percentage points. By 2004, only 26.5 percent of the population of Moldova was poor. The most essential decrease took place in 2002–03.
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines Moldova’s Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (EGPRSP) covering 2004–06. The EGPRSP has the potential to become an effective tool for continuous strategic planning, and for providing for the prioritization of strategic objectives and the implementation of related actions. It is also a tool for efficient and transparent allocation of available resources, and for the harmonization of medium- and long-term objectives. The EGPRSP also represents a framework for the coordination of sectoral strategies, directing them toward the accomplishment of the higher-level EGPRSP objectives.