Le FMI publie deux fois par an des Perspectives économiques régionales pour cinq régions : Asie et Pacifique ; Europe ; Moyen-Orient et Asie centrale ; Afrique subsaharienne ; et hémisphère occidental. Chaque rapport aborde l'évolution économique récente et les perspectives de la région concernée, ainsi que pour certains pays. Les rapports comportent des données statistiques clés sur les pays de la région. Chaque rapport traite des politiques qui ont eu une incidence sur les résultats économiques régionaux et précise les enjeux auxquels les décideurs sont confrontés. Les perspectives à court terme, les principaux risques et les difficultés de politique économique afférentes sont analysés tout au long des rapports, qui examinent également l'actualité (par exemple, comment mettre fin progressivement à l'intervention publique tout en préservant une reprise économique mondiale qui reste fragile). Ces rapports précieux sont l'aboutissement d'études interdépartementales exhaustives, fondées pour l'essentiel sur les renseignements recueillis par les services du FMI dans le cadre de leurs consultations avec les pays membres.
Sub-Saharan Africa continues to record strong economic growth, despite the weaker global economic environment. Regional output rose by 5 percent in 2011, with growth set to increase slightly in 2012, helped by still-strong commodity prices, new resource exploitation, and the improved domestic conditions that have underpinned several years of solid trend growth in the region's low-income countries. But there is variation in performance across the region, with output in middle-income countries tracking more closely the global slowdown and with some sub-regions adversely affected, at least temporarily, by drought. Threats to the outlook include the risk of intensified financial stresses in the euro area spilling over into a further slowing of the global economy and the possibility of an oil price surge triggered by rising geopolitical tensions.
This paper discusses a request from Samoa's authorities for a Disbursement Under the Rapid-Access Component of the Exogenous Shocks Facility (ESF-RAC). The tsunami that hit Samoa on September 29, 2009 has undercut Samoa’s economic resilience and prospects for a quick recovery from the global recession. Real GDP is likely to contract in 2010. The authorities have requested a disbursement equivalent to 50 percent of quota (SDR 5.8 million) under the IMF’s ESF-RAC. IMF staff supports the request on Samoa’s low public debt and credible commitment to sound macroeconomic policies.
The staff report for Belize’s use of Fund Resources and Request for Emergency Assistance is examined. Economic growth has been sustained largely by rising oil production, while inflation has remained under control. Despite rising oil production, economic growth has been low in 2007, in part because of the impact of Hurricane Dean. The authorities are confident that the banking system is stable and adequately capitalized, and largely insulated from international market turmoil.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper develops an analytical framework that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves for a small open economy with limited access to foreign capital and subject to natural disasters or terms of trade shocks. International reserves allow the country to relieve balance of payments pressures caused by external shocks and to avoid large fluctuations in imports. I calibrate the model to two regions, the Caribbean and the Sahel, and assess the sensitivity of the results.
The fiscal impact of these policies will be significant, but donor support, improved revenue, and budget reallocations will contain domestic financing. The authorities have introduced several policies in response to the disasters. IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a purchase under the IMF's policy on emergency assistance for natural disasters. Following severe flooding, the impact of cyclone Sidr on Bangladesh has been substantial.
This Recent Economic Developments and Selected Issues paper on Georgia highlights that during 1997, the Georgian economy grew by 11 percent according to official estimates, while the average annual inflation rate continued its downward path initiated in 1995 and reached single-digit levels of about 7 percent. The fiscal deficit (on a commitment basis) declined from 4.5 percent in 1996 to 4.1 percent in 1997. Investment outlays of the general government, however, fell in real terms in 1997 as the government adjusted to a tighter budget constraint.
This paper reviews economic developments in Papua New Guinea during 1995–97. The nonmineral sector was characterized by uneven growth. Following a period of slow growth at the time of the Bougainville crisis (1989–90), nonmineral growth began to pick up, averaging 5½ percent during 1991–94. However, nonmineral output declined some 1 percent in 1995 following the onset of the financial crisis in 1994, recovered strongly in 1996 with the restoration of macroeconomic stability, and is estimated to have stagnated in 1997 owing primarily to the impact of adverse weather conditions on agricultural output.
This paper reviews economic developments in Georgia during 1990–96. Following the implementation of tight financial policies and the liberalization of prices, trade, and the exchange system, growth resumed in 1995 and accelerated in 1996, against the background of a stable exchange rate and declining inflation. At the same time structural reform continued to advance, laying the ground for increased private sector activity and sustained growth in the medium term. Following the introduction of the lari in October 1995, a gradual remonetization of the economy took place, and gross international reserves were replenished.
This paper reviews economic developments in the Republic of Armenia during the 1990s. Real GDP declined by a cumulative 60 percent in 1992–93; price changes reached hyperinflation levels in late 1993; and real wages declined by nearly 50 percent in the course of that year. In the fall of 1994, the authorities formulated a comprehensive program of stabilization and structural reform that was supported in December 1994 by a first purchase under the Systemic Transformation Facility.