Mr. Philip Barrett, Mariia Bondar, Sophia Chen, Miss Mali Chivakul, and Ms. Deniz O Igan
Using a new daily index of social unrest, we provide systematic evidence on the negative impact of social unrest on stock market performance. An average social unrest episode in an typical country causes a 1.4 percentage point drop in cumulative abnormal returns over a two-week event window. This drop is more pronounced for events that last longer and for events that happen in emerging markets. Stronger institutions, particularly better governance and more democratic systems, mitigate the adverse impact of social unrest on stock market returns.
The paper examines the behavior of stock returns in the Egyptian stock exchange, the efficiency of the market in pricing securities, and the relationship between returns and conditional volatility. GARCH(p,q)-M models estimated for the four best known daily indices indicate significant departures from the efficient market hypothesis; the tendency for returns to exhibit volatility clustering; and a significant positive link between risk and returns, which was significantly affected during the market downturn that followed the introduction of circuit breakers in the form of symmetric price limits on individual shares.
Amer Bisat, Mr. Mohamed A. El-Erian, Mr. Mahmoud El-Gamal, and Mr. Francesco P Mongelli
The paper considers investment and growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Notwithstanding cross-country differences, investment as a whole has been too low, too heavily tilted toward the public sector, too highly dependent on external influences, and less productive than in many other regions. Improving the region’s investment performance is critical if policymakers are to succeed in increasing the region’s economic growth rate. After discussing the relationship between investment and growth, the paper analyzes the investment responsiveness of various countries in the region and notes the policy priorities for strengthening the basis for rapid and sustained economic growth.