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  • External debt x
  • Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure x
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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The main purpose of this paper is to assess the risks to the financial sector that currently emanate from the United Kingdom property markets. The interaction of property markets with financial markets has important implications for financial stability. Cycles in the prices of housing and commercial property affect the balance sheets of households, banks, and other financial institutions. Excessive lending and price swings in property markets can cause significant distress to both borrowers and lenders. A drop in prices of real property weights on firms’ access to finance, which can reduce economic activity, leads to further declines in asset prices and potential financial stability risks.
Mr. Jiaqian Chen and Mr. Francesco Columba
We analyse the effects of macroprudential and monetary policies and their interactions using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to Sweden. Households face a ceiling on their loan-to-value ratio and must amortize their mortgages. The government grants mortgage interest payment deductions. Lending rates are affected by mortgage risk weights. We find that demand-side macroprudential measures are more effective in curbing household debt ratios than monetary policy, and they are less costly in terms of foregone consumption. A tighter macroprudential stance is also found to be welfare improving, by promoting lower consumption volatility in response to shocks, especially when using a combination of macroprudential instruments.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the underlying factors that explain the behavior of the Kiwi dollar. The findings suggest that the factors influencing the New Zealand dollar have been changing. The paper discusses that as New Zealand has become more integrated in global capital markets over time, the Kiwi dollar has become less of a commodity currency and more of a global currency that is influenced by interest rate spreads and global risk factors. The paper also looks at the strong preference for housing over financial assets exhibited by New Zealand households.
Krister Andersson
It is well known that the preferential tax treatment of housing induces an inefficient allocation of saving and investment. This paper analyzes, in a portfolio framework, how eliminating the deductibility of mortgage interest payments for federal income tax purposes might affect investment in housing. Expected rate of return and risk is estimated for three assets, bonds, housing, and stocks. The possibility that assets are imperfect substitutes is explicitly recognized in one section of the paper. The model suggests that the share of housing is likely to decrease by 4 to 9 percentage points if mortgage interest payments are not deductible. This may call for careful phasing of the change in policy.