This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on
SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as
well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the
propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent shocks, pointing to the
importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply disruptions turn out to
be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements during the most recent decades, while
speculative shocks became less influential.
The effect that the recent decline in the price of oil has had on growth is far from clear, with
many observers at odds to explain why it does not seem to have provided a significant boost
to the world economy. This paper aims to address this puzzle by providing a systematic
analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on growth for 72 countries comprising 92.8% of world
GDP. We find that, on net, shocks driving the oil price in 2015 shaved off 0.2 percentage points
of growth for the median country in our sample, and 0.17 percentage points in GDP-weighted
terms. While increases in oil supply and shocks to oil-specific demand actually boosted growth
in 2015 (by about 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively), weak global demand more than
offset these gains, reducing growth by 0.8 percentage points. Counterfactual simulations for
the 72 countries in our sample underscore the importance of diversification, rather than low
levels of openness, in shielding against negative shocks to the world economy.
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil
revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions
over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved
through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results
show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S.
supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market
oil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most
countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S.
oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by
0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing
countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters.
This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.
Mr. Paul Cashin, Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes, and Mr. Mehdi Raissi
This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.
Mr. Paul Cashin, Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes, Mr. Mehdi Raissi, and Maziar Raissi
We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.
The Second Review under the policy support instrument (PSI) highlights that Senegal’s economy has remained resilient to the global economic turmoil. In line with the authorities’ new Document of Economic and Social Policies for 2011–15, the 2012 economic program supported under the PSI will target critical bottlenecks in energy and infrastructure, which hinder growth and poverty reduction. The fiscal program will allow the authorities to scale up infrastructure investment, but requires keeping a prudent stance on the rest of the budget.
This paper presents the key findings of the Republic of Azerbaijan’s 2010 Article IV Consultation. In 2009, overall GDP grew at 9.3 percent, but non-oil GDP growth slowed from 16 percent to 3 percent, fiscal and export revenues fell by more than 30 percent, and credit and liquidity conditions tightened substantially. Owing to the authorities’ appropriate policy response, the exchange rate remained stable, inflation dropped dramatically, official poverty rates continued to fall, and financial stability was maintained.
This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for the Republic of Congo. Policy implementation through the first half of 2009 was satisfactory. All quantitative performance criteria and all but one of the structural benchmarks were met. The non-oil basic primary deficit target for end-June was observed by a comfortable margin. Progress toward observing the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) floating completion point triggers has accelerated recently, and the authorities are making a strong effort to reach the completion point by year-end.
Social and political stability has improved in Congo, but the security situation is fragile. Executive Directors welcomed the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP), which was designed to safeguard fiscal and external stability. They stressed the need for stabilizing the economy and pursuing structural reforms with a view for achieving sustainable growth, reducing poverty, diversifying the economy, and benefiting from enhanced HIPC Initiative debt relief. As a sign of their renewed commitment to reengagement with the IMF, authorities established a new organizational structure for better monitoring and implementation of the economic and financial program.