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International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The scenario planning exercises help to draw out the surveillance priorities and stress- test the robustness of those priorities to uncertainties in the decade ahead. To inform the two priorities on confronting risks and uncertainties and mitigating spillovers, the scenarios illustrate how different shocks and alternative policy approaches carry their own risks and can have both positive and negative spillovers. The scenarios also illustrate some of the complex economic and non-economic factors that feed into the priority on economic sustainability and demonstrate how resource constraints and changing economic structures underpin the need for a unified policy approach.
Flavien Moreau and Adriana Lleras-Muney
We propose a dynamic production function of population health and mortality from birth onwards. Our parsimonious model provides an excellent fit for the mortality and survival curves for both primate and human populations since 1816. The model sheds light on the dynamics behind many phenomena documented in the literature, including (i) the existence and evolution of mortality gradients across socio-economic statuses, (ii) non-monotonic dynamic effects of in-utero shocks, (iii) persistent or “scarring” effects of wars and (iv) mortality displacement after large temporary shocks such as extreme weather.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Government of Sierra Leone’s new Medium-term National Development Plan (MTNDP) 2019–2023 has been founded on a strong political commitment to deliver devel-opment results that would improve the welfare of Sierra Leone’s citizens. The plan charts a clear path towards 2023 en route to the goal of achieving middle-income status by 2039 through inclusive growth that is sustainable and leaves no one behind. For the next five years, the Free Quality School Education Programme is the government’s flagship programme to provide a solid base to enhance human capital development and to facilitate the transformation of the economy.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses progress on Sixth Five Year Plan (2011–15) of Bangladesh. For the broad picture of performance of the Sixth Plan during the first three years in terms of achieving major development targets relating to economic growth, employment and poverty reduction is generally positive. The economy has made further solid progress in these areas, which is reassuring. Progress has also been made in transforming the economy from a rural-based agrarian economy to one that is more modern urban-based manufacturing and services-based. Export performance is on track, which has provided the impetus for the expansion of the manufacturing sector.
Ian W.H. Parry, Mr. Dirk Heine, Eliza Lis, and Shanjun Li

Abstract

Energy taxes can produce substantial environmental and revenue benefits and are an important component of countries’ fiscal systems. Although the principle that these taxes should reflect global warming, air pollution, road congestion, and other adverse environmental impacts of energy use is well established, there has been little previous work providing guidance on how countries can put this principle into practice. This book develops a practical methodology, and associated tools, to show how the major environmental damages from energy can be quantified for different countries and used to design the efficient set of energy taxes.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper reviews Mali’s 2012–2017 Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy Paper. Mali’s GDP was CFAF 1,741.89 billion in 2012; real growth was ?1.2 percent, that is, excluding inflation (2.7 percent in 2011). The decline of 3.9 points in growth between 2011 and 2012 was finally stemmed, despite the major shocks that Mali had to face in 2012. The dual security and institutional shock had a negative impact on the entire economy, and more particularly on certain subsectors such as construction and public works, the hotel industry, and commerce. The GDP growth rate was ?1.2 percent in 2012, compared with 2.7 percent in 2011.
Ms. Christine Lagarde

Abstract

This chapter presents the content of the Richard Dimbleby lecture, which has been delivered by an influential business or a political figure every year since 1972. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, delivered the 2014 lecture at Guildhall in London on February 3. The 44 nations gathering at Bretton Woods have been determined to set a new course based on the principle that peace and prosperity flow from the font of cooperation. Fundamentally, the new multilateralism needs to instil a broader sense of social responsibility on the part of all players in the modern global economy. A renewed commitment to openness and to the mutual benefits of trade and foreign investment is requested. It also requires collective responsibility for managing an international monetary system that has travelled light-years since the old Bretton Woods system. The collective responsibility would translate into all monetary institutions cooperating closely mindful of the potential impact of their policies on others.