This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights low oil prices’ and falling oil production’s blow to the Nigerian economy. The country entered a recession in 2016, with growth contracting by 1.5 percent. Annual inflation doubled to 18.6 percent, reflecting higher electricity costs and fuel tariffs, a weaker naira, and accommodating monetary conditions. Even with significantly lower capital spending, the consolidated fiscal deficit increased from 3.5 percent of GDP in 2015 to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2016. Under unchanged policies, the outlook remains challenging and growth would pick up only slightly to 0.8 percent in 2017, mostly reflecting some recovery in oil production and a continuing strong performance in agriculture.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights Niger’s macroeconomic outcomes, which continue to be affected by security and humanitarian shocks, weak commodity prices, and reduced trade flows to neighboring countries. For 2016, growth is projected at 4.6 percent, slightly higher than the 3.5 percent recorded in 2015, but still only just above the rate of population growth. The medium-term economic outlook is favorable, but remains subject to substantial external and domestic risks. Growth is projected to increase to 5.2 percent in 2017 and to average 6.0 percent during 2018–21, mainly as a result of the expansion of the extractive industries sector and an increase in public and private investments.
This paper discusses recent economic developments, outlook, and risks of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Despite the fragile security situation in some member countries and a less favorable external environment in 2015, economic growth exceeded 6 percent for the second consecutive year, driven by ongoing infrastructure investments, solid private consumption, and favorable agricultural campaigns. This paper also discusses how timely and effective implementation of the planned policies is required at the national level to maintain the growth momentum while preserving external stability and debt sustainability and to enact the planned regulatory reforms and improve further supervisory processes and the enforcement of existing prudential norms.
This paper provides details of Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) Assessment report for Niger. The measurement of the public financial management performance indicators shows that progress has been insignificant. Reform programs in progress in the area of oversight and external auditing are moving ahead; as this trend continues, the progress will be reflected in the scores of subsequent assessments. However, the progress of the external audit will continue to depend on positive trends in the area of accounting, information recording, and financial reporting.
IMF engagement with Niger since 2005 has remained constructive. IMF-supported programs have contributed to the authorities’ goals of macroeconomic stability, growth, and human development progress. Development of Niger’s uranium and petroleum resources provides an important opportunity to raise the living standards of Niger’s citizens. Institutional reforms aimed at enhancing the efficient use of resource revenues and transparency of public finances will remain critical to maximize benefits and avoid distortions associated with the resource curse.
This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review under the three-year arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for Mali. Performance under the PRGF-supported program has been generally satisfactory, but there have been delays in implementing structural reforms. Performance criterion on nonconcessional debt was breached in April 2009 when the authorities used loan financing instead of the envisaged bond financing for the programmed reduction in value-added tax (VAT) credit arrears. Authorities have taken corrective measures to restore the track record of structural reforms and address the nonconcessional borrowing.
This paper discusses key findings of the Fifth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for Niger. Growth prospects for 2007 are favorable, particularly because of strong agricultural production and buoyant investments. Inflation remains low. Growth prospects for the medium term have been improved by the rising price of uranium, which supports continued exploration and development of existing mines, although insecurity in the northern mining areas, if not checked, could slow the expansion. The IMF staff recommends completion of the review.
Niger’s Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and Request for Waiver and Modification of Performance Criteria are examined. Economic growth in 2006 has been satisfactory at 4.8 percent, owing to a good harvest for the second year in a row, and strong mining, telecommunications, and construction activities. Inflation has been low, and food security improved, partly because of continued donor support. The fiscal deficit in 2006 has been smaller than programmed because of underspending and exceptional mining receipts.
This paper discusses key findings of the 2006 Article IV Consultation and Third Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility for Niger. Macroeconomic performance and policy implementation have been broadly satisfactory. After a drought in 2004, a bumper harvest in late 2005 and good rains in 2006 have helped economic recovery, improved food security, and eased inflation. The fiscal deficit in 2006 is expected to be narrower than programmed, reflecting mainly lower spending on investment and food security.