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  • Measurement and Analysis of Poverty x
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Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
This paper reviews the significant macro-fiscal challenges posed by climate change in Djibouti and the costs of mitigation and adaptation policies. The paper concludes that Djibouti is susceptible to climate change and related costs are potentially large. Investing now in adaptation and mitigation has large benefits in terms of reducing the related costs in the future. Reforms to generate the fiscal space are therefore needed and investment for mitigation and adaptation to climate change should be built into the long-term fiscal projections. Finally, concerted international efforts and stepping up regional cooperation could help moderate climate-related macro-fiscal risks.
Tingyun Chen, Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert, Mr. Alexander Pitt, Mr. Haonan Qu, Mr. Maximilien Queyranne, Alaina Rhee, Ms. Anna Shabunina, Jérôme Vandenbussche, and Irene Yackovlev
This SDN studies the evolution of inequality across age groups leading up to and since the global financial crisis, as well as implications for fiscal and labor policies. Europe’s population is aging, child and youth poverty are rising, and income support systems are often better equipped to address old-age poverty than the challenges faced by poor children and/or unemployed youth today.
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
The paper examines the poverty-reducing and distributional characteristics of Djibouti’s economic growth, and discusses policies that might help make growth more inclusive. It covers the period between 2002 and 2013, for which comparable household surveys are available. The main findings are that while in the past decade the overall level of poverty in Djibouti declined, there have been no clear signs of improvements in either equality or growth inclusiveness. Growth has not been inclusive and benefitted mainly those in the upper part of the income distribution. These conclusions should be treated as indicative. Progress in poverty reduction and inclusiveness would require not only sustained high growth but also the creation of opportunities in sectors with high earning potential for the poor. Better targeted social policies and more attention to the regional distribution of spending would also help reduce poverty and improve inclusiveness.
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
The paper examines Senegal’s growth performance from the perspective of its povertyreducing and distributional characteristics, and discusses policies that might help make growth more inclusive. The main findings are that poverty has fallen in the last two decades, but poverty reduction has slowed in recent years. Although available indicators sometimes give conflicting signals on distributional shifts, people in the middle of the income distribution have received the most benefit, mainly in urban areas. Further progress in poverty reduction and inclusiveness would require sustained high growth and exploration of growth opportunities in the sectors with high earning potential for the poor. Better-targeted social policies and more attention to the regional distribution of spending would also help reduce poverty and improve inclusiveness.
Mr. Chris Becker
This paper seeks to document key characteristics of small island states in the Pacific. It restricts itself to a limited number of indicators which are macro-orientated - population, fertility of land, ability to tap into economies of scale, income, and geographic isolation. It leaves aside equally important but more micro-orientated variables and development indicators. We show that small island states in the Pacific are different from countries in other regional groupings in that they are extremely isolated and have limited scope to tap economies of scale due to small populations. They often have little arable land. There is empirical evidence to suggest that these factors are related to income growth.
Sudharshan Canagarajah and Mr. Saji Thomas
This paper describes the nature and evolution of poverty in Nigeria between 1985 and 1992. It highlights the potential wealth of the Nigerian economy and examines how the economic policies pursued in the 1980s and 1990s impacted economic growth and welfare. The headcount measure of poverty in Nigeria declined from 43 percent to 34 percent between 1985 and 1992. Decomposing the factors causing the reduction in poverty shows that the overall decline of 9 percentage point was the net result of a 14 percentage point decline owing to the growth factor and a 5 percentage point increase owing to the income distribution factor. The paper proposes that promoting broad-based growth and targeted interventions in health, education, and infrastructure need to be central strategies in the fight against poverty in Nigeria.
Mr. Paulo Silva Lopes and Mr. Emilio Sacerdoti
Poverty has remained widespread in Mozambique, mostly on account of the prevalent war situation. This paper provides a profile of the lowest income groups in Mozambique and examines how they were affected by the economic recovery program of 1986–90. The results, indicate that despite large price adjustments, in real terms minimum and low wages improved over the 1986–90 period. Agricultural production increased in response to better incentives, and small farmers in safe areas improved their relative income position. However, in the presence of a large refugee population and war-related destruction, there continues to be a pressing need for extended emergency aid.
Ms. Padma Gotur
This paper assesses the impact on the poor of the economic reforms undertaken in Bangladesh under Fund-supported structural adjustment programs. It finds that program-induced changes in production, employment, and incomes have benefitted the poor, while the adverse impact of program-induced price changes has been modest. However, as adjustment efforts are intensified under the current structural adjustment program, more pronounced short-term adverse effects might arise, requiring compensatory measures. The paper reviews special assistance programs for the poor, including those designed to mitigate the potential adverse effects of adjustment, noting that improved targeting would yield sizable fiscal savings that could be used for strengthening social programs.