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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper proposes a simple nowcast model for an early assessment of the Salvadorian economy. The exercise is based on a bridge model, which is one of the many tools available for nowcasting. For El Salvador, the bridge model exploits information for the period 2005–17 from a large set of variables that are published earlier and at higher frequency than the variable of interest, in this case quarterly GDP. The estimated GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent year-over-year, leading to an average GDP growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2017. This is in line with the GDP growth implied by the official statistics released two months later, in March 23, 2018.
International Monetary Fund
The past five years have seen an expansion of the scope of FSAPs to assess countries' macroprudential policy (MaPP) frameworks. This note documents this increase and offers some suggestions on how the treatment of MaPP issues in FSAPs can be further strengthened and better integrated into the overall financial stability assessment.
Ms. Camelia Minoiu and Ms. Shatakshee Dhongde
Current estimates of global poverty vary substantially across studies. In this paper we undertake a novel sensitivity analysis to highlight the importance of methodological choices in estimating global poverty. We measure global poverty using different data sources, parametric and nonparametric estimation methods, and multiple poverty lines. Our results indicate that estimates of global poverty vary significantly when they are based alternately on data from household surveys versus national accounts but are relatively consistent across different estimation methods. The decline in poverty over the past decade is found to be robust across methodological choices.
International Monetary Fund
In December 2008, the IMF Executive Board discussed the Seventh Review of Data Standards Initiatives, and Directors requested staff to return to the Board within about a year with a proposal for the inclusion of selected financial indicators in the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). This paper responds to the 2008 request taking into account recent developments. The recent financial crisis has heightened the need for policymakers, financial regulators and capital market participants to put in place conditions that would help prevent the occurrence of similar crises in the future. One of the areas identified by the international community as key in crises prevention is the availability of timely and more detailed financial data that could provide early warning signals of impending risks and vulnerabilities
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Ms. Helene Poirson Ward
This paper investigates the determinants of exchange rate regime choice in 93 countries during 1990-98. Cross-country analysis of variations in international reserves and nominal exchange rates shows that (i) truly fixed pegs and independent floats differ significantly from other regimes and (ii) significant discrepancies exist between de jure and de facto flexibility. Regression results highlight the influence of political factors (political instability and government temptation to inflate), adequacy of reserves, dollarization (currency substitution), exchange rate risk exposure, and some traditional optimal currency area criteria, in particular capital mobility, on exchange rate regime selection.
Mr. William Carrington and Ms. Enrica Detragiache
The brain drain from developing countries has been lamented for many years, but knowledge of the empirical magnitude of the phenomenon is scant owing to the lack of systematic data sources. This paper presents estimates of emigration rates from 61 developing countries to OECD countries for three educational categories constructed using 1990 U.S. Census data, Barro and Lee’s data set on educational attainment, and OECD migration data. Although still tentative in many respects, these estimates reveal a substantial brain drain from the Caribbean, Central America, and some African and Asian countries.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper highlights that since its inception in 1956, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) has invested more than US$1.7 billion in nearly 300 enterprises in 62 developing countries in total projects costing about US$9 billion. The IFC is the affiliate of the World Bank, which has been given the specific task of furthering economic development by encouraging the growth of productive private enterprise in developing countries. The paper underscores that IFC plays an essentially catalytic role in generating investment funds from local and foreign sources.