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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on Guinea’s Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, and Financing Assurances Review. While performance under the IMF-supported program remains broadly satisfactory, Guinea faces significant downside risks related to coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The IMF will remain closely engaged with the Guinean country authorities as the situation evolves, and as the authorities further develop their policy responses and financing needs change. The ECF arrangement supports strengthening Guinea’s resilience, scaling-up growth-supporting investment and social-safety nets and promoting private sector development. Achieving the programmed basic fiscal surplus in 2020 will contribute to containing inflation and preserving debt sustainability. Mobilizing additional tax revenues and reducing electricity subsidies will create fiscal space to scale-up growth-supporting public investments and strengthen social safety nets. Implementing programmed tax revenues measures, adopting an automatic petroleum products price adjustment mechanism, and advancing the multi-year electricity tariff reform is key. A prudent borrowing strategy will support scaling-up growth-supporting public investment.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
While macroeconomic policies in recent years have succeeded in restoring elements of macroeconomic stability under difficult circumstances, macroeconomic conditions are nonetheless precarious. The recent fall in commodity prices, new spending initiatives, and looser spending oversight during the political transition period have led to a weaker fiscal position mostly financed by the central bank. In that context, international reserves have fallen to critically low levels (one week of import coverage). Balance of payments needs remain both urgent and protracted.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Staff-Monitored Program and Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. The economic environment remains challenging and vulnerable to shocks. Real gross domestic product growth is projected to decelerate to 4.5 percent in 2019 from 5.8 percent in 2018. The recent fall in commodity prices, new spending initiatives, and looser spending oversight during the political transition period have led to a weaker fiscal position mostly financed by the central bank. In this context, international reserves have fallen to critically low levels creating urgent balance of payment needs. The new government is committed to implementing measures and reforms that would strengthen macroeconomic stability, reinforce international reserves, address issues related to poor governance, a difficult business environment, and pervasive poverty. Authorities also intend to boost domestic revenue by restoring the functioning of the value-added tax and enforcing the personal income tax, while improving mining revenue forecasting. In addition, the government intends to introduce strict spending caps, increase the effectiveness of monetary policy, and foster inclusive growth and private sector development including through infrastructure projects and free basic education.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on macro-critical issues related to governance and corruption in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Third-party indicators suggest that governance has been poor and corruption widespread in the country. Conducting an audit of the civil service and improving the transparency of its remuneration system, simplifying tax payment processes, and merging the activities of the numerous revenue agencies would boost public efficiency and improve the business environment. Contract enforcement and protection of property rights could be enhanced by insulating the courts from external influence. Limited information on the budget annexes and special accounts and little or no oversight by the central government, Parliament, and civil society, create scope for corruption. The multiplicity of special taxes and fees, some accruing to special accounts outside the Treasury, generate opportunities for corruption and informalization of economic activity. Despite some progress in strengthening public financial management, budget execution remains deficient. The government has formalized the four stages of the expenditure chain and introduced budget commitment plans to align expenditures with revenues.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Mongolia’s promising longer-term prospects given its abundant natural resources. In recent years, however, the economy has faced substantial challenges, as external shocks and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies have compounded structural weaknesses. Mongolia remains heavily exposed to external shocks, given its export profile, and a key challenge will be to avoid the boom-bust cycles of the past. The discussions with authorities have focused on improving the fiscal framework and strengthening policy discipline, complemented by structural reforms to boost diversification and competitiveness and by efforts to strengthen and better target the social safety net.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Guinea’s Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), Financing Assurances Review, and Requests for an Augmentation of Access and Extension of Current Arrangement. Performance under the ECF program has been satisfactory. All quantitative performance criteria have been met. Macroeconomic policies in 2015 will remain supportive to help deal with the Ebola outbreak. The IMF staff supports the completion of the fifth review under the ECF arrangement and financing assurances review and requests for an extension of the current arrangement to end-2015, an augmentation in access, and disbursement of 25 percent of quota as budget support under the 5th review.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
KEY ISSUES Context. Mauritania’s economy has benefited from macroeconomic stability and high growth in the context of contained inflation, responsible macro-policies, high iron ore prices and scaled-up public investment. However, economic growth has not translated into broadly improved living standards and is being hit by a sharp decline in iron ore prices. Outlook and Risks. Although the outlook remains favorable, it hinges heavily on stabilizing iron ore prices and expanding mining capacity. Downside risks to the outlook dominate because iron ore prices may decline further in response to excess supply in the global market. Key Policy Recommendations. With high risk of debt distress and deteriorating terms of trade, Mauritania’s fiscal policy needs to remain focused on consolidation to support fiscal sustainability. Over the medium term, a fiscal framework with a full-fledged fiscal rule will help prevent the boom–bust cycles that ensue from volatility in natural resource revenue, and with strengthened governance in managing mining wealth. The central bank should take advantage of the low-inflation environment to strengthen monetary policy formulation, gradually liberalize the foreign exchange market, and introduce liquidity support and banking resolution frameworks. The implementation of the recent FSAP recommendations should be pursued to enhance the stability of the financial sector stability. Economic diversification and inclusive growth are the foremost medium-term challenges. The authorities should accelerate structural reforms needed to raise Mauritania’s potential growth, create jobs, and improve living standards for all Mauritanians. Article VIII. A comprehensive analysis of the foreign exchange market identified exchange restrictions and multiple currency practices (MCPs) subject to Fund approval under Article VIII. Effective November 20, 2013, the exchange rate regime is classified as “stabilized” arrangement.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Résumé analytique. L’activité économique est restée déprimée au début de 2014. Depuis la fin de 2013, elle souffre des conséquences de l’épidémie du virus Ébola, mais il se peut que le retard pris dans l’exécution des réformes structurelles, les pénuries d’énergie et l’incertitude politique entrent également en jeu. La croissance économique a été estimée à 2,3 % en 2013, et devrait s’établir à 3,5 % en 2014, grâce à la hausse de l’investissement public et en supposant la reprise graduelle de l’investissement dans le secteur minier. L’inflation est tombée à moins de 10 % en glissement annuel en mai 2014, les réserves internationales couvraient 3,6 mois d’importations à la fin de 2013, et le taux de change est resté stable. Les résultats dans le cadre du programme appuyé par la FEC demeurent globalement satisfaisants, malgré la lente mise en œuvre des réformes structurelles. Tous les critères de réalisation pour la fin de 2013 et tous les objectifs indicatifs du programme pour mars 2014 sauf un (le plancher de dépenses dans les secteurs prioritaires) ont été observés. Les repères structurels pour le second semestre de 2013 et le début de 2014 n’ont cependant pu être respectés dans les délais prévus. Les entretiens ont porté sur : i) les perspectives de croissance pour 2014; ii) une rallonge budgétaire pour 2014 compte tenu du manque à gagner sur les recettes et des besoins supplémentaires de dépenses; iii) les progrès dans la mise en œuvre des réformes structurelles; et iv) la gestion de la dette. Les risques pesant sur le programme tiennent en grande partie à des facteurs nationaux. La résurgence et la propagation de l’épidémie Ébola observées ces derniers mois pourraient peser sur la croissance au second semestre 2014. L’approbation récente du cadre d’investissement pour le grand projet de minerai de fer de Simandou est de bon augure pour la reprise graduelle de l’activité minière. Le regain des tensions politiques et de l’incertitude durant la période précédant les élections présidentielles, qui doivent avoir lieu au second semestre de 2015, risque toutefois de retarder les nouveaux investissements. Les services du FMI recommandent la conclusion de la quatrième revue de l’accord au titre de la FEC et de la revue des assurances de financement. L’achèvement de la revue donnera lieu à un décaissement d’un montant équivalant à 18,36 millions de DTS au titre de l’accord FEC.