Foreign bank lending has stopped growing since the global financial crisis. Changes in
banks’ business models, balance-sheet adjustments, as well as the tightening of banking
regulations are potential drivers of this prolonged slowdown. The existing literature
however suggests an opposite effect related to regulation, with tighter regulations
encouraging foreign lending through regulatory arbitrage. We investigate this question
using new survey data on regulations specific to banks’ international operations. Our
results show that regulatory tightening can explain about half of the decline in the foreign
lending-to-GDP ratio between 2007 and 2013. Regulatory changes in home countries have
had a larger effect than those in host countries.
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti, Mr. Patrick M. McGuire, and Mr. Stijn Claessens
The recent financial crisis has shown how interconnected the financial world has become. Shocks in one location or asset class can have a sizable impact on the stability of institutions and markets around the world. But systemic risk analysis is severely hampered by the lack of consistent data that capture the international dimensions of finance. While currently available data can be used more effectively, supervisors and other agencies need more and better data to construct even rudimentary measures of risks in the international financial system. Similarly, market participants need better information on aggregate positions and linkages to appropriately monitor and price risks. Ongoing initiatives that will help in closing data gaps include the G20 Data Gaps Initiative, which recommends the collection of consistent bank-level data for joint analyses and enhancements to existing sets of aggregate statistics, and the enhancement to the BIS international banking statistics.
In light of the multilateral effort to ensure the adequacy of the financial resources available to the International Monetary Fund (the “Fund”), and with a view to supporting the Fund’s ability to provide timely and effective balance of payments assistance to its members, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (“OeNB”) agrees to lend to the Fund an SDR-denominated amount up to the equivalent of EUR 2.18 billion, on the terms and conditions set out in this paper
The staff report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights the Russian Federation’s long-term perspective, economic developments, and macroeconomic policies. Russia’s economic growth remains robust. High oil prices and sound fiscal policy underlie Russia’s long spell of robust growth. Executive Directors noted that Russia continues to face tensions in the policy mix designed to reduce inflation while preserving exchange rate stability. Raising investment levels is particularly important in light of the projected decline in the labor force and the declining prospect for continued high productivity gains over the medium term.
Propelled by large terms-of-trade gains, GDP growth has accelerated and is running close to potential. The demand pressures associated with the large terms-of-trade gains are reflected in a fast real appreciation of the ruble, although more of this has come through nominal appreciation during the last year. IMF staff welcomed the greater focus on inflation control, but cautioned that additional exchange rate flexibility would be needed to meet the end-2006 target. The authorities agreed that structural reforms are behind.
The current account deficit by the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina in recent years has fluctuated to about 20 percent of GDP. But official current account statistics suffer from several shortcomings. Possible sources of the savings required to achieve a fiscal position consistent with long-term fiscal sustainability is discussed. A theoretical model of the trade balance has been developed and used as the basis for estimating a quarterly regression model of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s trade balance. Effective fiscal coordination is essential in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
This Selected Issues paper estimates a dynamic model of foreign currency loans to households in Austria to analyze their behavior and assess the effectiveness of measures intended to stem their rise. This paper also studies the developments in Austria’s economic linkages with Germany and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). It finds that there has been delinking from Germany, albeit measured, while economic relationships with key CEEC trading partners have become stronger. The paper also discusses the dynamics of Austria’s economic linkages with Germany, and examines these linkages with the CEECs.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper discusses the launch of the Brandt Commission. The paper highlights that during the week of the Annual Meetings of the Board of Governors of the World Bank and the IMF in Washington, D.C. (September 26–30, 1977), Willy Brandt, former Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, announced that he would head an independent commission that would identify “ways of restructuring international relations that would command the widest possible support.” The Commission will have about 15 members, both from developed and developing countries.