International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses the options for financing the government fiscal deficit in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi government is working to develop a comprehensive strategy to meet its budget financing needs. Although external borrowing could alleviate pressure on the domestic market, it will also create new risks. Reliance on foreign investors may help further enhance transparency. Foreign investors’ demand for diversification could also allow the Saudi government to enjoy attractive yields. Broadening the investor base and ensuring that the government’s debt issuance supports the development of the private debt market could help alleviate some of the negative economic and financial effects of higher government debt.
This paper reviews the experience of the IMF’s long-term engagement in Romania and options for future IMF involvement. The unfavorable growth performance also reflected adverse conditions for private sector development. Foreign investors have welcomed the more stable macroeconomic environment and the tax legislation overhaul under the recent Stand-By Arrangement. Although the overlap between Bank and IMF conditionality in the area of structural reforms was not conducive to reducing the number of conditions, it helped increase the pressure on the authorities to maintain the reform momentum.
The Czech economy has turned in a solid performance, and the medium-term prospects are good. The short-term outlook is positive, although downside risks are significant The outlook for low underlying inflation leaves scope for monetary policy to continue to support growth. The government's resolve to address the deterioration in the fiscal accounts has been commended. The challenge now is to implement the proposals and prepare for medium-term output. Redressing shortcomings of the judicial and legal systems is the top priority for structural reform.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
This paper assesses Romania’s Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and a Request for Waiver of Performance Criterion. Romania’s macroeconomic performance continued to be favorable, but slippages in wage policy and privatization delayed the completion of the third review. Robust GDP growth continued throughout 2002, and progress in reducing inflation and the current account deficit was better than targeted. However, financial discipline in the state-owned sector remained weak, and the end-September performance criterion on the wage bill in monitored state-owned enterprises was not observed.
Forty years ago, Marcus Fleming and Robert Mundell developed independent models of macroeconomic policy in open economies. Why do we link the two, and why do we call the result the Mundell-Fleming, rather than Fieming-Mundell model?
Mr. Richard D Haas, Mr. Oleh Havrylyshyn, and Ms. Ratna Sahay
This chapter is the collection of eight papers on different aspects of the first 10 years of economic transition. Transition issues have appeared initially quite controversial. There have been controversies on the speed of reforms, privatization methods, the role and organization of government, the kind of financial system needed, etc. Although these controversies often have been ideological, they also reflect to a large extent the initial ignorance and unpreparedness of the economics profession with respect to the large. Resident representatives in transforming economies have had a unique opportunity to witness and participate in one of the most interesting and challenging events of the economics profession in the past 50 years: the transformation of centrally planned economies into market-based systems. The job is intellectually fascinating, frequently extremely rewarding, occasionally frustrating, however, never boring. The decline in cash revenue in Russia has been the key macroeconomic policy failure of the transition. This paper argues that the fall in cash compliance emerged when money printing was replaced with a method of budget financing that did not, in the short run, compromise the government's goals of low inflation, a stable exchange rate, and low interest rates, but which ultimately has led the government into a low cash revenue trap.