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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The Research Summaries in this issue of the IMF Research Bulletin cover “Tax Capacity and Growth” (by Vitor Gaspar, Laura Jaramillo, and Philippe Wingender), and “U.S. Shale Revolution and Its Spillover Effects on the Global Economy” (Ravi Balakrishnan, Keiko Honjo, Akito Matsumoto, and Andrea Pescatori). The Q&A coauthored by Amadou Sy and Mariama Sow covers “Seven Questions about the Relationship between Country Finance and Governance.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications is included in the IMF Research Bulletin. Readers can also find news on free-to-view articles from IMF Economic Review and a call for conference papers in this issue of the Bulletin.
Mr. Paul Cashin, Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes, and Mr. Mehdi Raissi
This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through thirdmarkets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Niño weather events over time, and their impact on different regions crosssectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Niño shocks on growth, inflation, energy and non-fuel commodity prices. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to El Niño shocks. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, for other countries (including the United States and European region), an El Niño occurrence has a growth-enhancing effect. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Niño weather episodes.
Mr. Alfredo Cuevas and Secil Topak
When faced with a relative price shock, monetary authorities often aim to contain its second round effects on inflation while accepting first round effects. We analyze the experience of South Africa and other inflation targeters to explore whether and when this policy prescription implies changing the monetary policy stance. Inflation targeting central banks differ on how aggressively they typically react to relative price shocks, reflecting differences in resilience of underlying inflation to such shocks. An examination of individual policy decisions reveals the importance of the broader economic context in framing the responses to relative price shocks.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook is packed with country specific facts, figures, and worldwide projections that present the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Leading international economists pull together the latest data on key topics, producing informed projections and policy analyses that show where the global economy is headed in the years to come. Business executives, policymakers, bankers, investors, marketing strategists, and economists worldwide refer to the WEO with confidence because it delivers a balanced view of the current economic situation, built upon the respected and extensive macroeconomic expertise and statistical resources of the IMF. The WEO is the product of a unique international exercise in information gathering and analysis performed by over 1,000 economists on the IMF staff. An annual subscription to the World Economic Outlook, published at least twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, offers a comprehensive assessment of the international economic situation as well as prospects for the future. With its analyses backed by the expertise and unparalleled resources of the IMF, the World Economic Outlook is the authoritative reference in its field. Today, when even small economic fluctuations can trigger major financial swings, the WEO supplies a solid source of actionable information and data.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook is packed with country specific facts, figures, and worldwide projections that present the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Leading international economists pull together the latest data on key topics, producing informed projections and policy analyses that show where the global economy is headed in the years to come. Business executives, policymakers, bankers, investors, marketing strategists, and economists worldwide refer to the WEO with confidence because it delivers a balanced view of the current economic situation, built upon the respected and extensive macroeconomic expertise and statistical resources of the IMF. The WEO is the product of a unique international exercise in information gathering and analysis performed by over 1,000 economists on the IMF staff. An annual subscription to the World Economic Outlook, published at least twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, offers a comprehensive assessment of the international economic situation as well as prospects for the future. With its analyses backed by the expertise and unparalleled resources of the IMF, the World Economic Outlook is the authoritative reference in its field. Today, when even small economic fluctuations can trigger major financial swings, the WEO supplies a solid source of actionable information and data.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Riche en informations factuelles et en chiffres sur les pays, le rapport du FMI sur les Perspectives de l'économie mondiale présente de façon claire et pratique, outre des projections mondiales, les perspectives en matière de croissance, d'inflation et de commerce. Des économistes internationaux de renom regroupent les données les plus récentes sur des domaines clés pour produire des projections et analyses fouillées qui indiquent la trajectoire de l'économie mondiale pour les prochaines années. Les dirigeants d'entreprises, les responsables politiques, les banquiers, les investisseurs, les responsables de stratégie marketing et les économistes du monde entier se tournent avec confiance vers les PEM, parce qu'elles dressent un tour d'horizon équilibré de la situation économique actuelle, sur la base de la vaste expertise macroéconomique et des ressources statistiques du FMI. Les PEM sont le produit d'un exercice international, unique en son genre, de collecte et d'analyse d'informations mené par plus de 1,000 économistes du FMI. L'abonnement annuel aux Perspectives de l'économie mondiale, qui sont publiées au moins deux fois l'an en anglais, en français, en espagnol et en arabe, donne accès à une évaluation exhaustive de la situation économique internationale, ainsi qu'aux projections pour l'avenir. Avec leurs analyses fondées sur l'expertise et les ressources sans pareilles du FMI, les Perspectives de l'économie mondiale constituent la référence incontestée dans leur domaine. À l'heure où de légères fluctuations économiques peuvent déclencher des bouleversements financiers majeurs, elles offrent une source fiable d'informations et de données très utiles.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

El informe Perspectivas de la economía mundial (informe WEO) del FMI está repleto de datos específicos sobre países, gráficos y proyecciones mundiales que presentan las perspectivas de crecimiento, inflación, comercio y otros aspectos económicos en un formato claro y práctico. Economistas internacionales de primera línea se valen de los datos más recientes sobre temas clave para elaborar proyecciones y análisis de políticas que describen el rumbo de la economía mundial en los años venideros. Ejecutivos de empresas, autoridades, banqueros, inversionistas, estrategas de marketing y economistas de todo el mundo confían en el panorama equilibrado de la actualidad económica presentando en el informe WEO, que está basado en los prestigiosos y amplios conocimientos macroeconómicos y los recursos estadísticos del FMI. El informe WEO es el resultado de un singular esfuerzo internacional de recopilación y análisis de información a cargo de más de 1.000 economistas del FMI. Una suscripción anual al informe WEO —que se publica dos veces al año en inglés, español, francés, y árabe— permite contar con una evaluación integral de la situación económica mundial y con las perspectivas para el futuro. Con análisis respaldados por los conocimientos especializados y los excepcionales recursos del FMI, el informe WEO es la publicación de referencia en su ámbito. En el mundo actual, en el que hasta las más leves fluctuaciones económicas pueden tener importantes efectos financieros, el informe WEO es una fuente fiable de información y datos que permiten tomar de decisiones.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook is packed with country specific facts, figures, and worldwide projections that present the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Leading international economists pull together the latest data on key topics, producing informed projections and policy analyses that show where the global economy is headed in the years to come. Business executives, policymakers, bankers, investors, marketing strategists, and economists worldwide refer to the WEO with confidence because it delivers a balanced view of the current economic situation, built upon the respected and extensive macroeconomic expertise and statistical resources of the IMF. The WEO is the product of a unique international exercise in information gathering and analysis performed by over 1,000 economists on the IMF staff. An annual subscription to the World Economic Outlook, published at least twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, offers a comprehensive assessment of the international economic situation as well as prospects for the future. With its analyses backed by the expertise and unparalleled resources of the IMF, the World Economic Outlook is the authoritative reference in its field. Today, when even small economic fluctuations can trigger major financial swings, the WEO supplies a solid source of actionable information and data.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook is packed with country specific facts, figures, and worldwide projections that present the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Leading international economists pull together the latest data on key topics, producing informed projections and policy analyses that show where the global economy is headed in the years to come. Business executives, policymakers, bankers, investors, marketing strategists, and economists worldwide refer to the WEO with confidence because it delivers a balanced view of the current economic situation, built upon the respected and extensive macroeconomic expertise and statistical resources of the IMF. The WEO is the product of a unique international exercise in information gathering and analysis performed by over 1,000 economists on the IMF staff. An annual subscription to the World Economic Outlook, published at least twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, offers a comprehensive assessment of the international economic situation as well as prospects for the future. With its analyses backed by the expertise and unparalleled resources of the IMF, the World Economic Outlook is the authoritative reference in its field. Today, when even small economic fluctuations can trigger major financial swings, the WEO supplies a solid source of actionable information and data.

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes inflation in Norway with a view to shedding light on this surprising development and the possible near-term course of inflation, using statistical and econometric analyses. The paper reviews recent developments of monetary policy and inflation in Norway, applies statistical and econometric tools to identify factors influencing inflation, and describes the implications of the analysis for policymaking. Using data for six advanced small open economies explicitly targeting inflation, the paper examines empirically whether deviations of the exchange rate from their equilibrium levels systematically affect the conduct of monetary policy.