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Chengyu Huang, Sean Simpson, Daria Ulybina, and Agustin Roitman
We construct sentiment indices for 20 countries from 1980 to 2019. Relying on computational text analysis, we capture specific language like “fear”, “risk”, “hedging”, “opinion”, and, “crisis”, as well as “positive” and “negative” sentiments, in news articles from the Financial Times. We assess the performance of our sentiment indices as “news-based” early warning indicators (EWIs) for financial crises. We find that sentiment indices spike and/or trend up ahead of financial crises.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note evaluates the progress achieved by the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) in strengthening banking supervision in Bulgaria. Progress in responding to the recommendation of the 2015 Basel Core Principles Assessment is under way. As part of the reforms initiated in October 2015, the BNB has put in place a new governance model to enhance the effectiveness of supervision. The activities of the Banking Supervision Department (BSD) will now be governed by new formal policies adopted by the Governing Council (GC). Through a new quarterly report, the GC is now better informed on banking risks and progress in addressing them. The BSD is also subject to annual internal audit.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents an assessment of observance of Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision in Turkey. Since the previous assessment conducted in 2011, the Banking Regulation and Supervisory Agency has made several significant improvements to its supervisory framework. There are areas that still warrant improvement, including addressing legal provisions that undermines supervisory independence, providing a deeper risk assessment focus to supervisory inspections and follow up, enhancing the forward-looking component of the assessments, streamlining risk management and corporate governance requirements, strengthening the supervisory enforcement regime, demanding recovery plans, developing group resolution plans, and increasing the ability to act at an early stage to address unsafe and unsound practices.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents an assessment of observance of the CPMI–IOSCO (Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures–International Organization for Securities Commissions) principles for financial market infrastructures in Turkey. The electronic funds transfer system in Turkey broadly observes the risk management framework and liquidity risk management, default management, and operational risk management principles. It partially observes the tiered participation principle. The rest are observed or not applicable. The electronic securities transfer system broadly observes the risk management framework, liquidity, default management, and operational risk principles; the rest are observed or not applicable.
Ruud A. de Mooij and Mr. Shafik Hebous
Tax provisions favoring corporate debt over equity finance (“debt bias”) are widely recognized as a risk to financial stability. This paper explores whether and how thin-capitalization rules, which restrict interest deductibility beyond a certain amount, affect corporate debt ratios and mitigate financial stability risk. We find that rules targeted at related party borrowing (the majority of today’s rules) have no significant impact on debt bias—which relates to third-party borrowing. Also, these rules have no effect on broader indicators of firm financial distress. Rules applying to all debt, in contrast, turn out to be effective: the presence of such a rule reduces the debt-asset ratio in an average company by 5 percentage points; and they reduce the probability for a firm to be in financial distress by 5 percent. Debt ratios are found to be more responsive to thin capitalization rules in industries characterized by a high share of tangible assets.
Mr. Daniel C Hardy and Philipp Hochreiter
A mechanism is proposed that aims to reduce the risk of a banking sector liquidity crisis—which is a quintessentially systemic event and thus the object of macroprudential policy—and moderate the effects of a crisis should one occur. The instrument would give banks more incentive to build up buffers of systemically liquid assets as a proportion of their total liabilities, yet these buffers would be usable in times of stress. The modalities of the instrument are considered with a view to making it effective, efficient, and robust.
Mr. In W Song and Carel Oosthuizen
The growing presence of Islamic banking needs to be accompanied by the development of effective regulation and supervision. This paper examines the results of the survey conducted by the International Monetary Fund to document international experiences and country practices related to legal and prudential frameworks governing Islamic banking activities. Although a number of countries have made considerable progress in creating legal, regulatory, and supervisory frameworks that accommodate Islamic banking, there are substantial differences. This paper also identifies a number of challenges faced by regulatory and supervisory agencies regarding Islamic banking.
International Monetary Fund
The assessment is a featured report of Turkey’s credit boom in the middle of 2011. The country faced the global crisis successfully because of earlier significant capital buffers. Overall, the country was healthy financially, but there was a slowdown in loan growth and market vulnerabilities. This insignificant shudder caused the regime to strengthen the fiscal sector and insurance framework. Despite new macrofinancial risks in domestic and international developments, the Executive Board still considers Turkey a balanced power.
International Monetary Fund
Las Notas Técnicas y Manuales son preparados por los departamentos del FMI con el fin de difundir sus recomendaciones de asistencia técnica entre una audiencia más amplia. Estos estudios presentan recomendaciones y orientaciones de carácter general, extraídas en parte de informes de asistencia técnica que no se han publicado. Esta nueva serie se publica desde agosto de 2009.