Ms. Kimberly Beaton, Aliona Cebotari, Xiaodan Ding, and Andras Komaromi
The paper applies a network analysis framework to analyze the regional and global
integration of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. We compare network-based
measures of trade integration to conventional measures, decomposing integration along
several dimensions to better understand the sources of trade connectivity and their impact on
growth. The paper finds that LAC countries are relatively well integrated in terms of links to
diversified markets, but the strength of those links is weak. Comparing trade integration to
predictions from gravity models, we find many LAC countries have significant scope to
improve connectivity and increase their roles in regional and world trade networks.
An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba. The results also suggest that Caribbean countries have in general not lowered their dependency on U.S. tourists, leaving them vulnerable to this potential change.
IMF research summary on how globalization affects developing countries (by Prachi Mishra and Petia Topalova); country study on Croatia (by Athanasios Vamvakidis); listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during June 2007-January 2008; listing of contents of Vol. 54, Issue No. 3 of IMF Staff Papers; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; and listing of recent external publications by IMF staff members.
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.