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Mr. Alun H. Thomas
Recent micro level data from East Africa is used to benchmark aggregate data and assess the role of agricultural inputs in explaining variation in crop yields on smallholding plots. Fertilizer, improved seeds, protection against erosion and pesticides improve crop yields in Rwanda and Ethiopia, but not Uganda, possibly associated with lack of use there. With all positive yield determinants in place, wheat and maize yields could increase fourfold. The data hints at the negative effect of climate change on yields and the benefits of accompanying measures to mitigate its adverse impact (access to finance and protection against erosion). The adverse effect of crop damage on yields varies between 12/13 percent (Rwanda, Uganda) to 36 percent (Ethiopia). Protection against erosion and investment financing mitigate these effects considerably.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the technical advice and recommendations given by the IMF mission to the authorities of Uganda regarding compilation of quarterly national accounts statistics. The finalization of the supply and use tables has involved incorporation of significantly revised source data for a number of industries since November 2013, as well as changes in the input data resulting from the implementation of methodological improvements. The Uganda Bureau of Statistics has also made a significant effort to finalize the source data and improve coverage of the economy over the past six months, resulting in revised data for a number of industries. The net impact has been to increase the GDP level by economic activity.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses technical advice and recommendations given by the IMF mission to the authorities of Uganda regarding finalization of the rebased GDP estimates for dissemination. For the economic activity worksheets, the nominal and real growth rates, intermediate consumption/gross output ratios at current and constant prices, and implicit price deflators were checked. A number of adjustments were made to the methodology to improve the representativeness of the indicators and the weights of the composite price indices to ensure the resulting estimates are within expectations. There is considerable scope to improve the price deflators and constant price estimates. Technical Assistance to improve the expenditure estimates will be provided during 2015.
Cem Karayalcin and Mihaela Pintea
The process of economic development is characterized by substantial reallocations of resources across sectors. In this paper, we construct a multi-sector model in which there are barriers to the movement of labor from low-productivity traditional agriculture to modern sectors. With the barrier in place, we show that improvements in productivity in modern sectors (including agriculture) or reductions in transportation costs may lead to a rise in agricultural employment and through terms-oftrade effects may harm subsistence farmers if the traditional subsistence sector is larger than a critical level. This suggests that policy advice based on the earlier literature needs to be revised. Reducing barriers to mobility (through reductions in the cost of skill acquisition and institutional changes) and improving the productivity of subsistence farmers needs to precede policies designed to increase the productivity of modern sectors or decrease transportation costs.
Mr. Nikoloz Gigineishvili, Mr. Paolo Mauro, and Ke Wang
Is rapid economic growth experienced by the East African Community during the past decade built on solid foundations? To gain some clues, we use a variety of newly-collected and existing data sources to analyze the structural transformation of output and exports, as well as indicators of their quality and sophistication. The move from agriculture to a wide range of other sectors—bodes well for continued growth, as do gradual improvements in quality. Yet, no clear winners on the production side seem to have emerged, to embed a durable comparative advantage in international markets. These observations may instill a note of caution against projecting rapid growth into the distant future.
Mr. Atish R. Ghosh and Mr. Steven T Phillips
Although few would doubt that very high inflation is bad for growth, there is much less agreement about moderate inflation’s effects. Using panel regressions and a nonlinear specification, this paper finds a statistically and economically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth. This relationship holds at all but the lowest inflation rates and is robust across various samples and specifications. The method of binary recursive trees identifies inflation as one the most important statistical determinants of growth. Finally, while there are short-run growth costs of disinflation, these are only relevant for the most severe disinflations, or when the initial inflation rate is well within the single-digit range.

Although sub-Saharan African countries differ greatly in their geographical and physical conditions, weather patterns, and cultural heritage, the similarity of their economic structures is striking. In particular, in nearly all these countries the agricultural sector remains dominant, and its well-being is crucial to the economy. It provides the earnings that support the industrial sector in its take-off into economic growth and the bulk of exports. Indeed, few countries have achieved sustained economic growth without first, or simultaneously, developing their agricultural sector. Nevertheless, over the 1970s the rate of growth of agricultural production in many of these sub-Saharan African countries declined from even the slow rates of the 1960s (Table 1).

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper highlights that the fight against worldwide inflation was the main theme of the Finance Ministers and central bank Governors from 138 member countries that participated in the 1979 Annual Meeting of the IMF’s Board of Governors in Belgrade in October 1979. Unlike the agenda for the 1978 Meeting, which contained a number of single issues, such as quota increases and special drawing rights allocations, requiring specific decisions and action, the 1979 Meeting was devoted principally to a wide-ranging discussion of the world’s economic problems.