This paper analyses the nature of the increasing regionalization process in global banking.
Despite the large decline in aggregate cross-border banking lending volumes, some parts
of the global banking network are currently more interlinked regionally than before the
Global Financial Crisis. After developing a simple theoretical model capturing banks'
internationalization decisions, our estimation shows that this regionalization trend is
present even after controlling for traditional gravitational variables (e.g. distance,
language, legal system, etc.), especially among lenders in EMs and non-core banking
systems, such as Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Moreover, this
regionalization trend was present before the GFC, but it has increased since then, and it
seems to be associated with regulatory variables and the opportunities created by the
retrenchment of several European lenders.
Mr. Maurice Obstfeld, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, and Miss Mahvash S Qureshi
This paper examines the claim that exchange rate regimes are of little salience in the
transmission of global financial conditions to domestic financial and macroeconomic
conditions by focusing on a sample of about 40 emerging market countries over 1986–2013.
Our findings show that exchange rate regimes do matter. Countries with fixed exchange rate
regimes are more likely to experience financial vulnerabilities—faster domestic credit and
house price growth, and increases in bank leverage—than those with relatively flexible
regimes. The transmission of global financial shocks is likewise magnified under fixed
exchange rate regimes relative to more flexible (though not necessarily fully flexible)
regimes. We attribute this to both reduced monetary policy autonomy and a greater
sensitivity of capital flows to changes in global conditions under fixed rate regimes.
Deeper intraregional financial integration is prominent on Asian policymakers’ agenda. This paper takes stock of Asia’s progress toward that objective, analyzing recent trends in cross-border portfolio investment and bank claims. Then, it investigates the drivers of financial integration by estimating a gravity model of bilateral financial asset holdings on a large sample of source and destination countries worldwide, focusing in particular on the role of regulation and institutions. The paper concludes that financial integration in Asia could be enhanced through policies that lower informational frictions, continue to buttress trade integration and capital market development, remove restrictions to foreign flows and bank penetration, and promote a common regulatory framework.
This paper assesses financial integration in Asia in terms of risk-sharing benefit versus financial-contagion cost. We construct a new measure of risk sharing based on a term structure model, which allows identification of realized stochastic discount factors. Risk sharing is low in Asia, and varies across time and countries, whereas contagion risks are more significant intra-regionally, and relatively stable over the past decade. An overall tradeoff exists between risk sharing and contagion, but the terms of tradeoffs vary across countries, depending on relative economic fluctuations and inflation differentials. Asia, therefore, can potentially enhance risk sharing without raising contagion risk.
Mr. Simon T Gray, Andreas Jobst, Mr. Joshua Felman, and Ana Carvajal
This paper examines a range of issues relating to bond markets in the ASEAN5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) - physical infrastructure including trading, clearing and settlement; regulation, supervision and legal underpinnings; and derivatives markets - and finds that the frameworks compare well with other Emerging Markets, following a decade of reform. A number of areas where further enhancements could be made are highlighted. The paper also examines the interrelationship between central bank management of short-term interest rates and domestic currency liquidity, and development of the wider money and bond markets; and suggests some lessons from the recent crisis in developed country financial markets which may be important for the future development of the ASEAN5 markets.
The paper makes an assessment of the progress made in developing local debt markets in emerging Asia. Market development has been limited by hurdles confronting borrowers and lenders, current and potential liquidity providers, and insufficient support from government policies and regulations. Besides fostering a credit culture to deepen local debt markets, the issue of critical size can be addressed through an integrated regional market for local currency bonds that provides greater scale, efficiency, and access. With rapid economic growth in Asia, a key challenge is to generate financial assets that can provide the underlying collateral for expanding fixed-income markets, and hence domestic and regional investment opportunities.
The paper compares trends in financial integration within Asia with those in industrialized countries and other regional groups. Declines in cross-country dispersion in equity returns and interest rates suggest increased Asian integration, with the process interrupted by crises and global volatility. Cross-border equity and bond holdings have also increased, but Asian countries remain considerably more financially integrated with major countries outside the region than with those within the region. The paper also discusses whether potential benefits of regional financial integration, such as increased risk-sharing and stability of the investor base, have materialized.
In its April 2009 Communiqué, the IMFC called for a prompt start to the Fourteenth General Review of Quotas so that it is completed by January 2011--some two years ahead of schedule. The IMFC noted that the review is expected to result in increases in the quota shares of dynamic economies, particularly in the share of emerging market and developing countries as a whole. The IMFC also looked forward to further work by the Executive Board on elements of the new quota formula that can be improved before the formula is used again, and noted that this work should start before the 2009 Annual Meetings.
An informal Executive Board seminar in December 2006 made an important start in the development of a new quota formula.2 The discussion was wide ranging, raising a number of important issues that need to be considered further in the development of a formula that can achieve the objectives of the quota reform and command the required broad support within the membership.
This paper seeks to provide a basis for a second discussion, including by exploring issues raised at the December meeting. The paper also provides further simulations based on a wider range of assumptions regarding possible variables and their weights, as requested by many Directors. As with the last paper, it should be emphasized that this paper does not seek to propose any particular formula and that all the simulations presented should be seen as illustrative and as merely an aid to discussion. Nevertheless, it is hoped that the discussion of this paper will help lay the groundwork for beginning to narrow options and moving toward formulation of a specific proposal in the coming months.
The paper does not address the size of the second round ad hoc quota increases. This question, which is closely linked to the magnitude of the increase in basic votes, will be taken up at a later stage once the discussion of the formula is more advanced.
This paper examines the possibility of Asian monetary integration. The paper highlights that the objectives and motivations behind the continuing debate for Asian monetary integration have now evolved. The objectives are no longer defensive, no longer preoccupied with crisis prevention or resolution. They are now more forward looking; they are about growth, about greater trade integration, about spurring greater cross-border flows of investment within Asia, and about promoting the integration and deepening of financial markets.