In this paper, we analyze credit growth in Sub-Saharan Africa over the past decade focusing on the post-2002 rapid credit growth in select countries. We develop regression models of the fundamental determinants of bank credit and use them to examine whether they can fully explain developments in rapid credit growth countries. We then argue that rapid credit expansion, whether a manifestation of a credit boom or driven by fundamentals, can give rise to prudential and macroeconomic risks. We detail these risks and discuss the choice of policies to mitigate them. We conclude by evaluating the likely impact of the ongoing global recession and financial crisis on credit growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.
This paper focuses on the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for Guinea-Bissau. The SMP, which covers the period April–December 2005, is based on the budget for 2005. It aims at avoiding new domestic arrears through a cash-rationing system, at improving tax administration and expenditure management, and at laying the basis for main public sector reform programs in the future. Economic policy focuses on rehabilitation of war-damaged infrastructure and on promoting economic growth by eliminating excessive regulation. The program also aims at improving governance.
This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that Guinea-Bissau’s economic performance has weakened substantially in recent years. Real GDP declined by 7 percent in 2002 and was flat in 2003. Structural reforms stalled after the war; the private sector remained incapacitated because of the destruction of equipment and infrastructure caused by the conflict, and the loss of stocks owing to confiscating and looting. In 2003, the external current account deficit, excluding official transfers, halved relative to the previous year, to 6.7 percent of GDP, reflecting higher cashew nut exports and stagnating imports.