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Mr. Serhan Cevik and Tianle Zhu
Monetary independence is at the core of the macroeconomic policy trilemma stating that an independent monetary policy, a fixed exchange rate and free movement of capital cannot exist at the same time. This study examines the relationship between monetary autonomy and inflation dynamics in a panel of Caribbean countries over the period 1980–2017. The empirical results show that monetary independence is a significant factor in determining inflation, even after controlling for macroeconomic developments. In other words, greater monetary policy independence, measured as a country’s ability to conduct its own monetary policy for domestic purposes independent of external monetary influences, leads to lower consumer price inflation. This relationship—robust to alternative specifications and estimation methodologies—has clear policy implications, especially for countries that maintain pegged exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar with a critical bearing on monetary autonomy.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Economic growth slowed down, but became more broad-based. In 2017, real GDP growth was 2.1 percent, with the non-mining GDP rebounding from its contraction in 2016. The external balance turned negative due to weaker than expected export growth and higher oil prices. Inflation remains relatively low, and the monetary stance accommodative. Oil production is expected to commence in 2020, and additional oil discoveries have significantly improved the medium- and long-term outlook.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the expansion of Guyana’s real economic activity by 3.3 percent in 2016. Subdued agricultural commodity prices, bad weather, and delays in public investment weighed down activity, while large increases in gold output helped support growth. Consumer prices increased by 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in December 2016 as weather-related shocks to food prices reversed the deflationary trend. The macroeconomic outlook is positive for 2017 and the medium term. Growth is projected at 3.5 percent in 2017, supported by an increase in public investment, continued expansion in the extractive sector, and a recovery in rice production.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses recent economic developments, the outlook, and risks for the Czech Republic. The economy has been growing at an exceptionally strong pace. Driven by robust domestic demand, output expanded by 4.2 percent—the highest rate in the central and eastern European region—in 2015. Labor market performance has been strong. Fiscal performance was better than budgeted in 2015. The banking sector is stable, and credit growth continues to strengthen. However, economic activity is expected to slow in 2016. Private consumption will remain robust on the heels of higher disposable income and employment, but the projected slowdown in EU-fund absorption will weigh on growth.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The economy has experienced seven consecutive years of robust growth, buoyed by high commodity prices, foreign direct investment and expansion of private sector credit. As part of a strategy to sustain growth, reduce poverty and curtail dependence on imported oil, the authorities are pursuing the Amaila Falls Hydro-electric Project (AFHP), entailing investment of about 30 percent of GDP. However, steps by Parliament that delayed important approvals led the private sector partner to withdraw, which could delay the project while additional financing is sought. Meanwhile, public debt remains high—around 60 percent of GDP—limiting the room to finance inclusive growth.
International Monetary Fund
The Executive Board of the IMF has approved a disbursement of an amount equivalent to SDR 2.075 million under the Rapid Credit Facility for St. Vincent and the Grenadines to help the country manage the economic impact of Hurricane Tomas. The Board’s approval enables the immediate disbursement of the full amount. The late-October 2010 hurricane inflicted significant damage to agriculture, housing, and infrastructure. The initial assessment conducted by the government estimated the cost of damage at 5 percent of gross domestic product.
International Monetary Fund
In this study, the economic developments and policy responses of Trinidad and Tobago after the crisis is reviewed. Policy recommendations are used to strengthen the legal and regulatory framework. According to the IMF’s financial system stability assessment (FSSA), there were critical gaps in the overall legal, regulatory, and supervisory structure for the insurance sector. The quality of insurance sector supervision can be assessed against internationally accepted established “core principles.” In this paper, an overview is presented of why the crisis occurred and some suggestions on how to prevent a future crisis.
Mr. Masahiro Nozaki, Mr. Tobias Roy, Mr. Pawel Dyczewski, Mr. Bernhard Fritz-Krockow, Ms. Fanny M Torres Gavela, Mr. Gamal Z El-Masry, and Mr. Rafael A Portillo
This paper analyzes the economic growth and stability in Suriname. The paper highlights that in recent years, the outlook has turned substantively more positive. The favorable external environment and the stability-oriented policies of the Venetian administration have boosted confidence in the economy, leading to increased investment, domestic economic activity, and employment. The recent boom in commodity prices has helped boost growth, while increased gold production and investment in the mineral industry are projected to support continued growth in the coming years.